Perspectives On Terrorism

Content

1. Introduction

2. Review of the Conceptual/Theoretical Literature
2.1 Conceptual Literature
2.2 Theoretical Literature
2.2.1 Rational Choice Theory
2.2.2 Psychosocial Theory
2.2.3 Frustration–Aggression Theory
2.2.4 Relative Deprivation Theory
2.2.5 Game Theory
2.2.6 Contagion Theory

3. Review of the Methodological Literature

4. Review of the Empirical Literature

5. Research Gaps

Conclusion

References

1. Introduction

Terrorism has become the norm in the world today such that hardly would a day pass without news of murder or assassination, homicide, genocide, kidnapping, hostage-taking, hijacking, skyjacking, bombing and attack across the world. While the acts of terrorism across the globe have increased markedly in recent times, in most parts of the world it continues to be a relatively rare event and concentrated in particular countries (Sascha, 2012:13).

Terrorism is as old as humanity and the significant of terrorism usually change over time and space characterised by injustices, poverty and war (Ikporikpo, 2007:3). The damage caused by terrorist attacks in the international community has become more severe and the casualties are not limited to specific people or locations (Chang, 2013:24). For example, between year 2000 and 2016, there are about 150,000 terrorist incidents that have taken place for about 163 countries (Global Terrorist Index, 2016:4).

Although terrorism is undoubtedly a major concern for safety and security, there are other forms of violence which result into more deaths globally. For example, the global homicide rate is 13 times the global terrorism rate, with 437,000 people dying from homicides compared to 150,000 from terrorism (Global Terrorist Index, 2016:32). The report further stated that ‘Venezuela has the highest rate of homicide in the world at 111 per 100,000 for the decade starting from 2000’.

Terrorists are evolving and they have acquired new methods which include suicide bombing and hostage taking/kidnapping. Suicide bombing is a new form deployed by the terrorists to achieve their political aims (David and Anja, 2010 cited in Saeed et al., 2012:2). The main attacks in Yemen are suicide bombings and the highest attacks in Libya are hostage-takings (Global Terrorist Index, 2016:40). Globally, there are estimated 15,000-20,500 kidnaps that take place each year (John, 2015:1). This shows that whilst terrorism is very deadly in many places of the world, there are other forms of violence which have a higher impact as well occurring across the world.

Africa has been home to different political violence and the current trend of rising terrorist groups across the region such as Boko Haram group in Nigeria, al-Shabaab in East Africa, Al-Qaeda in Algeria, Egypt, Mali and Mauritania (Yahaya, 2015:12). This shows that instability in the East and North Africa has raised a serious concern that West Africa could turn into an important conflict theatre and Boko Haram in Nigeria is a good example in such a scenario.

Terrorism in Nigeria was unknown in the early years of Nigeria's independence in 1960 and it became rampant in the late 90's and further culminating in today's epidemic proportion (Saulawa and Karumi, 2015:4). In 2016, Nigeria was placed 3rd out of 163 countries by Global Terrorism Index Report. This rating puts Nigeria among countries with serious terrorist activities behind Iraq (9.7%), Afghanistan (9.4%), Nigeria (9.3%), Pakistan (8.9%), Syria (8.6%), Russia (5.4%), UK (5.1%) and USA (4.9%) etc. No wonder, that the United State Mission advises all United State citizens in Nigeria to be particularly vigilant around government security facilities; churches, mosques and other places of worship and locations where large crowds may be gathered such as hotels, clubs, bars, restaurants, markets, shopping malls and other areas visited by the expatriates and the foreign travellers (The United State Embassy Abuja, 2016).

The salient point is that the act of terrorism in Nigeria seems to be changing in nature, increasing in occurrence and expanding in scope following the activities of the Niger Delta militants in the South-South, Boko Haram in the North-East and the activities of Fulani herdsmen across the country. In the Southern part of the country, armed militants have continued to engage in hostage takings/kidnappings since 2006 (Obi, 2015:47). Hostage taking and kidnapping incidents in the northern Nigeria are typically ‘the acts of terrorism’ (Oftedal, 2014: 53). It is on the record that, between 2013 and 2016, Nigeria recorded more than 20,000 deaths from Boko Haram insurgency (Umar, 2017:2). Similarly, there has been an on-going conflict over access and control of land between the Fulani herdsmen and farmers in the north-eastern and other parts of Nigeria. Global Terrorist Index (2016:35) further reported that Fulani herdsmen killed about 63 people in 2013, 1,229 in 2014 and 630 in 2015. It appears that these three groups now pose a serious threat to stability in Nigeria.

In view of the scenarios highlighted above, it is obvious that terrorism has grown over the years as an in­dustry across the world and it has become a very seri­ous problem in Nigeria. Following the introductory part, the paper is organized as follows:

i. introduction;
ii. review of the conceptual/theoretical literature;
iii. review of the methodological literature and
iv. review of the empirical studies in order to identify gaps in knowledge and contributes to geography of terrorism.

2. Review of the Conceptual/Theoretical Literature

A lot of theoretical work on terrorism revolves around definitions. In the first instance, terrorism studies have been criticised for its failure to develop an acceptable definition and to develop concepts and theories (O’Leary and Silke, 2006:8; Jackson, Gunning and Smyth, 2007:4; Colin, 2008:1). This implies that reviewing the literature on terrorism; one could conclude that literature has not developed a grand theory and concept of terrorism. Despite these criticisms, various concepts and theories have been advanced that offer useful explanations to terrorism and other related political violence. Therefore, this section reviews a number of concepts and theories that have been employed by scholars to explain terrorism in the literature. These theories include rational choice theory, relative deprivation theory, game theory, frustration and aggression theory, psychosocial theory and contagion theory.

2.1 Conceptual Literature

Terror

This concept was first used in 18th Century in France. This period was known as the ‘Reign of Terror’ (September 5, 1793 – July 28, 1794) which described the period of the French Revolution, when the revolutionary government executed anyone suspected to be an enemy of the revolution (Harvey, 2006:4). Since then, several studies analysing terrorism and counterterrorism have used this concept in so many dimensions. The concept of ‘terror' has been used to refer to the use of threats, fear and violence against people by terrorists (Stanley, 1996; Gerard et al., 1999; Varese, 2001; Volkov, 2002). Originally, the concept of ‘terror’ was deliberately and systematically organised by the state in order to create a better society and it was exclusively used then to describe acts by governments or those in authority (Burgess, 2003:2). However, the meaning of the concept has changed and since the mid-19th century, the term began to be associated with the acts committed against innocent people by non-governmental groups (Chaliand, 2007:4).

Terrorist

Scholars have used the concept of ‘terrorist’ to describe a person or group that uses unlawful violence and intimidation especially against civilians, in the pursuit of objective that is political in nature (Guenniffey, 2000:35; Lizardo, 2008:1; Sandler and Gaibulloev, 2009:6; Poggi, 1990:3; Corbin, 2014:13). Similarly, Juan (2003:17) and Kipkemboi (2013:7) used this concept to describe a situation where a person or group of people attempt to assert their interests in the complicated process of deciding 'who gets what, when and how. They further itemised several activities that constitute the concept of ‘terrorist’ such as ‘indiscriminate bombings, armed assaults on civilians, focused assassinations, kidnappings, hostage-taking and hijacking.’

According to Harry (2001), terrorist organizations are not just individuals or isolated groups; on the contrary, most of the time they are well-organized, well-planned and well-financed organizations with tight networks. He also discusses the most harmful terrorist activities that have the greatest impact on societies from the perspective of international political scholars. In summary, terrorists are people that perpetrate terrorism or those that engage in the acts of terrorism.

Terrorism

The conceptual meaning of terrorism is not clear because it has been associated with violence by many scholars (Ikporukpo, 2007:7). He adds that, its conceptualisation differs from its meaning in reality. Although the debate on the definition of terrorism could be traced to 1960s and 1970s (Roberts, 2015:9), the current arguments on the definition of terrorism revolve around what exactly constitutes terrorism and a terrorist attack.

The reason it is difficult to conceptualise terrorism is that, it appears that the criteria vary from one country to another. Even in the legal terms, the international community has not adopted a comprehensive definition of terrorism. Nevertheless, Ikporukpo (2007:23) further asks a crucial question that ‘when does violence becomes terrorism’? To Selliaas (2005:7), terrorism cannot be understood solely in terms of violence or threat of violence alone. He adds that, terrorism can also be understood in terms of media attention and without media attention and widespread notice, terrorism would not exist.

Other scholars such as Carlile (2007:6), Lizardo (2008:1), Spaaij (2010:3), Kipkemboi (2013:10), Moskalenko and McCauley (2011:4), Nijboe (2011:7), Saeed et al. (2012:1); Ellinggard (2013:12) and Lins, (2017:13) have conceptualised it to mean ‘an anxiety-inspiring method of repeated violent action, employed by (semi-) secret individual, group or state actors for political reasons, whereby in contrast to assassination, the direct targets of violence are not the main targets’. According to the former president of USA, in his Executive Order 13224 on Terrorism Financing, cited in Ikporukpo (2007:9), George Bush tries to relate the acts of terrorism to mass destruction, assassination, kidnapping and hostage-taking. The UK Terrorism Act of 2000 conceptualised it more broadly, stating that it is ‘designed to influence the government or to intimidate the public and can involve violence against a person, damage to property, a threat to a person’s life, a serious risk to the health and safety of the public and interestingly, serious interference with an electronic system’. The United States Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI, 2006) conceptualised it in a different way, relating the concept to ‘the unlawful use of force and violence against persons or property to intimidate the government, the civilian population, or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives’.

It is important to point out that there is neither an academic nor an international legal consensus regarding what constitutes the concept of terrorism in the literature. However, some key features can be considered essential aspects of the concept of terrorism: (1) calculated violence, (2) it instils fear, (3) motivated by goals that are generally political, religious or ideological, and (4) the victims are usually innocent people. These guidelines help distinguish terrorist attacks from other forms of violence.

Domestic Terrorism

Scholars such as LaFree and Dugan (2006:4), Gaibulloev and Sandler (2009:5), Wilcox, Ozer, Gunbeyi and Gundogdu (2009:34), Enders, Sandler (2010:6), Ellinggard (2013:22) and Anderson et al. (2013:5) conceptualised domestic terrorism as ‘home-grown in which the venue, target, and perpetrators are all from the same country.’ This implies that it is being perpetrated against civilians in the same country. For instance, suicide bombings and mass shootings in a country are considered domestic terrorism (Enders, et al., 2011:10). And they have become more prevalent in the past couple of decades with attacks on schools, shopping malls and other public places (Tonso, 2009:27). It seems that domestic or non-governmental terrorism is the type that prevails in the world today and which international society has been trying to fight. Boko Haram insurgency is one of the domestic terror groups in Nigeria (Adebisi and Azeez, 2014:4; Ayegba, 2015:2).

State terrorism

State terrorism is also known as governmental terrorism. It has been conceptualised as the acts of terrorism conducted by governments or terrorism carried out directly by, or encouraged and funded by an established government of a state (country) or terrorism practiced by a government against its own people or in support of international terrorism (Sandler and Enders, 2010:6; Ellinggard, 2013:24; Ugorji, 2017:15). State sponsorship is clearly an enabling factor of terrorism, giving terrorist groups a far greater capacity and lethality than they would have had on their own. Also, Western democratic governments have occasionally supported terrorist organizations as a foreign policy means (Ugorji, 2017:15). Moscow Theatre hostage seizure on 23 October 2002 by Chechen rebels was a state terrorist incident (Mickolus and Simmons, 2006:30). And the spate of kidnappings of Westerners in Lebanon in the 1980s qualifies as state terrorism (Sandler and Enders, 2010:7). State terrorism produced a type of violence in Argentina with specific characteristic types that contained within it death, sophisticated cruelty and terror (De Dunayevich and Puget, 1989). However, Abdullah (2002) asserts that state sponsorship is not a root cause of terrorism.

International terrorism

Several scholars have conceptualised international terrorism to mean the terrorist activities (the victims, the targets, the supporters, or the perpetrators) that are more than a single country (Badey, 1998 cited Kipkemboi, 2013:13; Gaibulloev and Sandler, 2009:6). According to Anderton and Carter (2004:4) ‘international terrorism includes incidents in which the perpetrators go abroad to strike their targets, select domestic targets associated with a foreign state, or create an international incident by attacking airline passengers or equipment’. Yuwei (2001:41) affirms that international terrorism involves factors such as ideology, politics, religion and culture. Examples of international terrorism are Al Qaeda’s attacks against U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998 (Anderton and Carter, 2004:5). The largest act of international terrorism occurred on 9/11, 2001 in a set of two co-ordinated attacks on the United States of America (the World Trade Centre towers in New York City and the Pentagon in Washington, D.C) (Pillar, 2001:7)

International terrorism focuses on the actors. Traditionally, two tracks have been pursued in classifying actors involved in international terrorism. One focuses on the victim, the other on the perpetrators (Charles, 2003:19). The perpetrators are usually the terrorists themselves and the victims are in most cases presumed to be innocent, unarmed or non-combatants as they have been described by most scholars studying terrorism (Molina, 1995 cited in Kipkemboi, 2013:20).

Counterterrorism/Anti-terrorism

The concept of counterterrorism in general has been a complicated issue in the literature due to the different perspectives on the practical implementation as well as due to the problem inherited from controversial definition of terrorism (Tiefenbrum, 2003:35; Setty, 2011:1). That means it has not been clearly defined in the literature. The concept of counterterrorism is synonymously used with anti-terrorism but they differ in meaning.

As a result of this confusion, some scholars have tried to conceptualise counterterrorism based on the practical activities adopted by different organs. For example, Schneider (2003:30) and Selliaas (2005:7) conceptualised it as practices which are designed to prevent, neutralize, or destroy terrorists and their organizations. Meaning that, they are offensive measures in nature. Anti-terrorism, by contrast, comprises defensive measures taken at, for example, borders, ports and airports, designed to detect and stop terrorists and can involve activities including growth management, comprehensive planning and micro-level urban design activities (Hoffman and Morrison-Taw 2002: 25; Schneider, 2003: 29; Naftali, 2005:8).

There is a great deal of literature discussing the military actions and whether they are legal, effective or even moral as counterterrorism strategy or to stop the activities of terrorist (Rutherford, 2007:6; Summy and Ram, 2008:4; Hughes, 2011:8). In contrast, many scholars have argued that military actions are simply ineffective in stopping terrorist threats, that in many ways they are exasperating the problem (Harry, 2001; Qiu, Bu and Huang, 2002; Rudie, Lisette, Frans, and Stefan, 2006). There is an increasing amount being written about the apparent failures of the interventions of the military operations in Afghanistan, Iraq, Russia, Middle East and Boko Haram in Nigeria (Yuwei, 2001:41; Fengming, Xia, and Li, 2003:1; Ugorji, 2017:20). Anti-military actions in the issue of ISIS think that escalating military actions against this violent extremist organization is not going to work. He stated further that ISIS it is quietly different and it is so powerful. This is because, ISIS has good weapons and good military training and leadership (Bennis, 2014). This indicates that the use of military force alone as counterterrorism cannot solve the problem.

Other scholars have concluded that criminal or legislative approach principles with regard to countering-terrorism could be applied in relation to international law and basic requirements of the Security Council resolution (Peter, 2008; Hailu, 2014:26). Enders and Sandler (1993:829) argue that terrorists respond strategically to counterterrorism measures, thereby generating ‘substitution effects’. That is, in observing an increase in a particular government counterterrorism program, can switch tactics, pursuing attacks less affected by the government’s efforts. A variety of empirical studies found that counterterrorism generates such effects (Enders and Sandler 1993, 2002; Enders, Sandler and Cauley, 1990:83; Im, Cauley and Sandler, 1987:238). For instance, Enders and Sandler (1993) demonstrated that when the United States installed metal detectors in airports in the 1970s, hijackings decreased but other forms of terrorism increased. And following 9/11, the United State emerged as the champion of antiterrorism (Ikporukpo, 2007:7).

It is important to note that counterterrorism studies reviewed above generally neglected the root causes of terrorism and overemphasized military operations. Besides military operations, it is necessary to conduct conversations between different groups, to respect different cultures, values and believes, to reduce economic incentives for breeding terrorism, and to collect intelligence and penetrate terrorist organizations, and to strengthen the sanctions of the international convention rather than using military operations alone. However, studies on other methods of counterterrorism apart from military operations have been neglected in the literature.

Freedom Fighters

Most scholars tend to believe that an internationally accepted definition of terrorism can never be agreed upon; after all, they concluded that, ‘One man’s terrorist is another man’s Freedom-fighter’ (Laqueur, 1987 cited in Ganor, 2002:1; Cooper, 2001:181; Saeed et al., 2012:1; Kipkemboi, 2013:10, Ellinggard, 2013:12; Obi, 2015; Lins, 2017:13). However, there is a general agreement that terrorism has become a monstrous problem in many parts of the world and that all efforts must be made to end it (Cooper, 2001:181)

The cliché that, ‘One man’s terrorist is another man’s freedom fighter, depends on the perspective and the view of the person defining it. For example, according to Ikporukpo (2007:23) most informed individuals in the Niger Delta region will perceived mainly Movement for Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) and Niger Delta People’s Volunteer Force (NDPVF) as Freedom fighters. To Ganor (2002:5), a terrorist organization can no longer claim to be ‘freedom fighters’ because they are fighting for national liberation or some other worthy goal and even if its declared ultimate goals are legitimate. He adds that an organization that deliberately targets civilians is a terrorist organization.

This shows that the idea that ‘One man’s ‘terrorist’ is another man’s freedom fighter’ may be difficult to sanction. Some scholars have argued that ‘Freedom fighters do not blow up buses containing non-combatants; as terrorists do, Freedom fighters do not set out to capture innocent people; as terrorists do (Netanyahu, 2000:6; Ganor, 2002:6; Reveron and Murer, 2008:311; Minch, 2014:2). This shows that discrepancy exists between ‘terrorism’ and ‘freedom fighter’. It appears that ‘one man’s terrorist is another man’s freedom fighter’ is untrue. By characterising terrorism as a mode of operation directed against civilian targets, as opposed to basing the definition on the goals of the violence, one may refute the slogan that ‘one man’s terrorist is another man’s freedom fighter.’

Stockholm syndrome

Stockholm syndrome is also known as Survival Identification Syndrome. It is a concept used in the study of kidnapping by scholars to describe the positive bond some kidnap victims develop with their captors in which the captives begin to identify with captors and may even sympathize with them (Strentz, 1982; Douglas, 2007; Samson, 2008:1; Jeremiah and Methuselah, 2014:10:1; McLaughlin, 2015:5; Poirier, 2016:2). Study has shown that this scenario is very common in kidnapping situation around the world (Charles, 2006).

The concept of ‘Stockholm syndrome’ originated in 1973 from a bank robbery in Stockholm, Sweden, when four employees of the bank (three women and one man) were taken hostage by the robbers and put into a vault, keeping them for 131 hours (McLaughlin, 2015:9). The syndrome was developed when the victims of the Stockholm bank rubbery defended their captives after being released, they appeared to have formed an emotional bond with their captors; telling various reporters that they saw the police as their enemy and not the bank robbers, some of them continued, afterwards, to praise and maintain contact with the robbers and would not agree to testify against them in court (Bike, 2006:2).

Today, Stockholm syndrome has become significantly more recognised in the scientific community (Charles, 2006; Samson, 2008). There are now acceptable analytical criteria for identifying Stockholm syndrome and this concept has been used by scholars, professionals and the media to explain national cases such as the Elizabeth Smart kidnapping in USA (West, 1976) . According to a study by Douglas (2007), the victims of Stockholm syndrome generally stand a good chance of recovering, but the prognosis and road to recovery depend on the nature and intensity of the suffering, and the victim's individual ability to cope. Nevertheless, some critics continue to insist that Stockholm syndrome, coercive persuasion and other forms of thought reform theory are largely a figment of the media's imagination (Charles, 2006).

McLaughlin, (2015:5) adds that due to the ethics of human experimentation, there have not been many chances for authorities, professionals and scholars to test precisely what factors cause Stockholm syndrome. However, Poirier (2016:2) agreed on three specific central characteristics. The first is that, the hostages have negative feelings about the police or other authorities. Second, the hostages have positive feelings toward their captor or captors. Third and last, the captors develop positive feelings toward the hostages. Similarly, it has been reported that three factors are necessary for the syndrome to develop. The first is that, the crisis situation lasts for several days or longer. Second is that, the hostage takers remain in contact with the hostages; that is, the hostages are not placed in a separate room. And third, the hostage takers show some kindness toward the hostages or at least refrain from harming them (The United States Federal Bureau of Investigation cited in McLaughlin, 2015:6).

Graham (1994) suggests that the concept of Stockholm syndrome is not unique to humans alone but that even infant nonhuman social animals such as birds, dogs and monkeys were found to bond to their abusers. This was attested to by Thims who suggests that in animal psychology, the theory of capture bonding is used to explain various situations of infanticide, such as in lion and gorilla social systems, where a new alpha male takes over the troop and in doing so kills off all of the offspring. The females then, invariably bond to the new male and reproduce a new litter with him (Thims cited Jeremiah and Methuselah, 2014:2).

Drawing on the literature related to hostages, Graham (1994) extended Classic Stockholm syndrome to provide an overarching theory referred to as Graham’s Stockholm Syndrome Theory. Graham theorized that emotional bonding could occur between a victim and an offender and reviewed the literature relating to some victimised groups to determine whether bonding to an offender occurred as it had in Stockholm syndrome. These groups include concentration camp prisoners, cult members, civilians in Chinese Communist prisons, pimp-procured prostitutes, incest victims, physically and/or emotionally abused children, abused women, prisoners of war, and hostages in general. It was found that in all the groups, bonding between an offender and a victim occurred when the following four conditions co-existed: (1) Perceived threat to survival and the belief that one’s captor is willing to carry out that threat; (2) The captive’s perception of some small kindness from the captor within a context of terror; (3) Isolation from perspectives other than those of the captor; and (4) Perceived inability to escape (Graham, 1994:33).

Lima Syndrome

Lima Syndrome is essentially a mirror image of Stockholm syndrome. It is a concept used to describe a situation where abductors develop sympathy for their captives (Briggs, 1995). This concept originated in 1996 when the Japanese Ambassador in Lima, Peru was abducted by members of a terrorist group (Anderson, 1993). Within a few days, the hostage takers set free most of the captives, including the most valuable ones, due to sympathy; and the ones who were supposed to kill the hostages in the event of an assault could not bring themselves to do it (Poirier, 2016:4). In other words, Lima Syndrome is a phenomenon in which kidnappers become so concerned for their hostages that they free them without using any bargaining strategy.

There are a number of reasons why this would happen. One of the kidnappers does not agree with the plan, or they do not feel up to hurting innocents. Or they just doing what are necessary and generally feel bad about it (Goddard and Tucci 1991). This captive is also likely to be the one in charge of tending to the captives, bringing them food or healing their wounds and thus has a greater chance of developing an attachment and growing to actually care about their well-being (Frank, 2005).

2.2 Theoretical Literature

2.2.1 Rational Choice Theory

Rational choice theory has been used by many scholars to offer theoretical explanations to the roots of terrorism. For example, Anderton and Carter (2004:7), Iannaccone and Berman (2006:109), Bray (2009:3), Miguta (2013:4), Lance (2013:9), Paul (2014:5) and Linde (2016:4) showed how rational choice theory is applicable to the study of terrorism by assuming that terrorist groups act on the best available option perceived (that is, act rationally). However, not all decisions are made rationally by terrorist groups, for instance when made by those who are reactive and or emotionally compromised (Hepworth, 2013).

Based on the success of rational choice theory as applied to the study of terrorism, Enders and Sandler (2006:6) successfully modelled the reaction of terrorist groups to counterterrorism efforts by the governments. Iannaccone and Berman (2006:9) modelled individuals’ decisions to join extreme religious groups. David (2003:22) and Yahaya (2015:10) looked at this theory from a socio-economic perspective in explaining terrorism with reference to Boko Haram and Niger Delta militancy in Nigeria. Baraga (2016:24) applied this theory to establish the public-private sector partnership in dealing with the regional threat of terrorism with special reference to retail trade in Kenya. Rational choice theory in most cases has been used to establish the structures, tactics and strategies of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) as a political actor (Daniel, 2013; Xandan, 2014; Phyllis, 2014; and Linde 2016:4).

Despite the success of rational choice theory in these areas, many authors continue to reject rational choice theory as an option when trying to understand individuals’ or groups’ engagement in political violence. One objection to applying rational choice theory to such behaviour is that the theory is one of individual behaviours while violent is one of political behaviours such as terrorism. Terrorism can best be explained by the psychology of the group (Bandura, 1990 cited in Bray, 2009:2). Another objection to rational choice theory when applied to violent political behaviour is its prominent assumption that individuals rationally seek to maximize their well-being. Caplan (2006:9) pointed to the behaviour of suicide terrorists as an obvious violation of the rationality assumption in that the personal cost of the behaviour clearly outweighs the personal benefits.

It is important to note that rational choice theory needed to incorporate concepts such as cultural or religious beliefs as suggested by many studies as key motivators of political violence. Bray (2009:1) argues that rational choice model can be usefully extended to explore the role that revenge seeking plays in individuals’ choices to engage in political violence. Similarly, Miguta (2013:24) asserts that the major short coming in the application of this theory in the study of terrorism is its appreciation of the costs as being only economic. However, as a political act, costs that inform the behaviour of terrorists as rational actors range from political to social and economic costs.

Another important point to note in reality is that, rational behaviour for one individual or group with set value systems may be irrational for other individual or group under the same circumstances. However, the application of this theory may be limited to the study of terrorism in absolute term. A fully specified rational choice model could include cultural values or religious beliefs and spatial characteristics which are not included in most studies in the literature.

2.2.2 Psychosocial Theory

A number of scholars (such as Bjorgo, 2005; Gerges, 2006; Pape, 2006; De la Corte, 2007; Neumann and Smith, 2007; Vargas, 2011:16) have reached a conclusion that terrorism can be explained in terms of psychosocial phenomenon. They suggest that, terrorism is the result of personal pathology and they also modelled the impact of cultural variables on the individual psyches of terrorists. In De la Corte (2007) influential formulation of the psychosocial theory of terrorism, psychosocial factors are applied to what might be called the post-commitment stages. The main drawback is that De la Corte’s theory is underestimated; he did not explain the variation in the social interaction of human behaviours, specifically the feelings of the individual and the characteristics of the culture and society.

Vargas (2011:8) applied psychosocial theory to the process of radicalization among Muslim militants (jihadist) with a history of activity in the United States. Vargas used this theory to create a new empirical and psychosocial perspective into home-grown Jihadist and concludes that this theory suggests frameworks for detection, intervention and prohibition when it comes to home-grown jihadi activity. Vargas study is closely focused on Islamist radicalization; his study is largely limited to treatments, theories and histories of Muslim radicalization and the context in which it takes place. Schmid (2013) makes an extremely valuable point on the trends in radicalisation, noting that radicalisation can be observed not only at individual’s level, but at a political one too, with apparently democratic countries resorting to practices such as torture and ‘rendition’ which do not conform to international human rights standards.

Clayton, Barlow and Baliff-Spanville (1998) present a compendium of psychological principles that contribute to the understanding of group violence, followed by a discussion of terrorism as an example of group violence. The authors then proposed a general model of motivation for participating in group violence and summarise the processes that contribute to the development of such motivation. Akhtar (1999) examines how psychodynamic characteristics of terrorist leaders and their followers are delineated, suing concepts from both individuals and group psychology. He asserts that most major players in a terrorist organization are themselves, deeply traumatised individuals. Whereas, Adigun (2002) provides a social-psychological consideration in the emergence and growth of terrorism. The author explicates terrorism as a form of deviant behaviour. The initial focus is on how terrorist ‘attitudes’ may develop in individuals. These attitudes are composed of cognitions, affects and desire to engage in certain behaviours.

Ardila (2002) concentrates on the psychology of individuals who commit terrorist acts. This is done from the point of view of behavioural psychology, in particular of the experimental analysis of behaviour. Cassimatis (2002) argues that since 9/11, psychoanalysis has many concepts useful to understanding terrorism (e.g. death instinct, paranoid position, malevolent, transformation parental empathetic features). However, Cassimatis failed to expand or apply them in any detail.

Some studies on group terrorism submitted that psychosocial is not a major causal factor in an individual becoming a terrorist (e.g. Van den Bos et al., 2009). In contrast, evidence suggests that psychological factors should be taken into consideration when investigating terrorism holistically (Nijboe, 2013:3). Indeed, Colvard (2002) and Hewitt (2003) argue that the degree of psychological disturbance, seemingly low or lacking altogether in most group terrorists and terrorist groups are not usually composed of violent people. And many studies have found that terrorists are psychologically much healthier and far more psychologically stable than other violent criminals (McCauley, 2002; Post, 2009; Moskalenko and McCauley, 2011). Rather, individuals get involved in terrorist organisations for a sense of fulfilment, power and sense of direction (Sageman, 2007; Mazarr, 2004; Schwind, 2005).

In contrast, some scholars have suggested that Islamic terrorism is rooted in psychological abnormalities (Orbach, 2001; Demause, 2002; Piven, 2002; Thackrah, 2004). Sageman (2007), Bakker (2006) and Martin Fletcher (2008) reported some cases where mentally disabled individuals committed an act of Islamic terrorism. Additionally, Simcox, Stuart and Ahmed (2010) argue that terrorists have ‘a disturbed relationship with their own identity’. He presents terrorists as individuals that are self-righteous, unable to be part of the community and their thinking on dehumanization of the enemy. The research findings of Spaaij (2010) report that, in four out of the five individual case studies of terrorism, some forms of psychopathology can be observed. Three of the cases could even be diagnosed with serious forms of personality disorders. And four of the individual’s studies appear to have experienced severe depression during at least one stage of their lives.

From the foregoing, one of the gaps that can be identified in the psychosocial theory is that it does not account for the pre-execution stages of terrorism, that is, all the processes that predate the moment of the actual terror attack. For example, psychosocial theories of terrorism have not been widely applied to the roots of terrorism holistically, during which an ordinary person becomes, through a series of psychological and social processes, into a terrorist or potential terrorist. Psychosocial explanations de-emphasize phenomena that take place out there, in an abstract realm of politics or history, and draw them back into an internal frame of reference. The studies psychosocial theory to the roots of terrorism failed to provide variation in the psychological factors responsible for both individual and group terrorism. This has received little attention in the literature.

2.2.3 Frustration–Aggression Theory

That frustration-aggression theory has been used by scholars to provide an explanation for why collective incentives can lead to violence and thus terrorism (Davies, 1969; Gurr, 1970; Wilkinson, 1977 cited in Ellinggard, 2013:25). McAllister and Schmid (2011:15) found that frustration and aggression arise by a blockage of an individual’s or group’s goal attainment and thereby leads to terrorism. This explains the situation from frustration to terrorism.

Lai (2004:3) applied this theory in a quantitative cross-country analysis based on the International Terrorism Attribute of Terrorist Events (ITERATE) dataset measuring transnational terrorism from 1967-77. Lai found a strong positive relationship between political inequality of minority groups within a state and terrorism in that state. Blomberg (2004:5) found that socio-economic frustration at an individual level play a significant factor in explaining terrorism. This theory was recently applied by Ellinggard (2013:8) to provide detail explanations to domestic and transnational terrorism. To him, frustration may lead to collective violence and thus terrorism. Ogionwo (2016:17) used this theory to explain the social problems and the rise of terrorism in Nigeria. He hypothesised that people are pushed to the acts of terrorism because of several factors such as poverty, corruption and lack of opportunities in their communities.

In contrast, to the above submissions, a case study of political violence in Northern Ireland suggests that socio-economic changes are mostly irrelevant in explaining fluctuations in violence (Thompson, 1989:1). Similarly, Corbin (2014:13) applied this theory to an empirical analysis of terrorism; he argues that frustration-aggression theory plays a significant role in terrorist actions in Middle East and Africa, but it does not explain all of it. He explained further that millions of people live in frustrating circumstances, but they never turn to terrorism. Furthermore, the oppression from the government does not play a role in all terrorist attacks because terrorism is much more than being frustrated.

It is important to note that none of these authors offers much evidence as to why this frustration/aggression has translated into terrorism in some countries and not in others and in recent years while not earlier. Nevertheless, Amaraegbu (2011:5), Ottuh and Aitufe (2014:11) and Maiangwa (2012:43) offer a broader look at the violent agitation and domestic terrorism in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria and Boko Harm activities in the Northern part of Nigeria using this theory. The authors argue that most of the circumstances that engender frustration and anger eventually bring about murderous militancy in the region which is based on the claim that the Nigerian state has continued to ignore the region.

The above suggest that there is a lack of theoretical underpinnings the roots of terrorism. To date, there is no study in the literature applying this theory that incorporates their spatial characteristics in a framework that should accounts for spatial factors responsible for terrorism holistically. It is important to point out that in order to improve further studies; a better theory on why people engage in terrorism is needed.

2.2.4 Relative Deprivation Theory

The relative deprivation theory is one of the most frequently applied when studying the roots of terrorism (political violence or otherwise) in the literature. Millard et al. (1939) were the first to propose this theory, postulating that deprivation leads men to act aggressively (Millard et al. cited in Richardson, 2011:6). Gurr (1970) explains in ‘why men rebel’ that instead of an absolute standard of deprivation, a gap between expected and achieved welfare creates collective discontent (Gurr quoted in Aniekwe and Kushie 2011).

A number of scholars have successfully applied this theory to provide a theoretical understanding to the explanatory factors responsible for terrorism (Maya et al., 2002; Beck, 2008; Savage and Liht, 2008; Maile et al., 2010), they came into landmark conclusion that political violence clearly exits in areas in which very few individuals are perceived to be deprived of some resource. Birrell (1972) sees relative deprivation as a factor responsible for conflict in Northern Ireland. The author uses the concept of relative deprivation (a group sees itself at a disadvantage when it is compared to some other reference groups) to explain conflicts between Catholics and Protestants in Northern Ireland. He argues further that, Catholics historically have perceived themselves to be at a disadvantage.

Richardson (2011) employed this theory to examine terrorist attacks from 1980-2008 across 56 countries to see whether the interaction effect of unemployment and higher education is positively correlated with an increase in the number of terrorist attacks. The results suggest that unemployment and population size are strongly correlated with increased instances of terrorism. Just like the above studies, Richardson failed to discuss the possible reasons for the significance of these indicators and the policy implications of his findings. Goldpin and Akpowoghaha (2013:17) and Ayegba (2015:8) applied this theory to offer a theoretical understanding of the conflicts and violence in Nigeria. To them, there is significant relationship between unemployment and youth unrest in the country. They add that, the resultant effect is the manifestation of terrorism like the Boko Haram in the North and the kidnapping menace in the Niger Delta. Okoo (2014:20) also applied this theory to offer an explanation to youth radicalization in Kenya. He concludes that the socioeconomic discontent, in turn, resulted into political violence. Like the above studies, Okoo did not look at the interaction effect of economic variables which may likely provide a better insight into understanding of terrorism. However, Victoroff (2005) on his own part submits that millions of people throughout the world have been deprived of some circumstances but never move toward radicalization. He adds that, many of those who became radicalized did not belong to the desperate classes whose deprivation they claim to be expressing.

One could suggest that both theoretical and empirical work is needed to determine the usefulness of the relative deprivation model in explaining the roots of terrorism and other related crimes such as kidnapping. Theoretical work should focus on fully specifying the model and deriving testable policy implications of the theory.

2.2.5 Game Theory

Because of the interactions between terrorists and counterterrorism agencies, game theory has been used extensively by scholars as an ideal tool for understanding terrorist behaviour i.e an appropriate tool for understanding the strategic interactions associated with terrorists and those charged with counterterrorism. For example, Rohner and Frey, 2007; Sandler, 2009:15; Sendler and Siqueira, 2009:1; Fuka, Obrsalova and Langasek, 2010:1; Fricker, 2012:8) used this theory to conceptualise a decision making in conflict situations and interactions among various agents. For example, the terrorists and the governments, two or more targeted countries, rival terrorist groups, the political and military wings of a terrorist group and terrorists and their supporters, the terrorists and the media, the terrorists and the general public.

The high number of airplane hijackings in the 1970s caused airports to increase their use of metal detectors, therefore increasing the relative cost of hijackings for terrorists (Sandler, Daniel and Arce, 2003). As a result, terrorists switched from hijackings to kidnappings (Anderton and Carter, 2004). The high number of kidnappings caused governments to increase security measures for foreign diplomats, so terrorists replaced kidnappings with suicide bombings (Sendler and Siqueira, 2009). Each player tries to outguess the other players’ behaviour by imagining how he or she would respond when in the other players’ shoes. Thus, a government that installs metal detectors in airports should not be surprised when terrorists respond by abducting hostages at other venues. As result of this, game theory has been used extensively by several scholars to offer useful explanations in terms of negotiation between the state and the terrorists in hostage incidents and kidnappings (de Figueiredo and Weingast, 2001; Sendler and Acre, 2003:5; Anderton and Carter, 2004:14-15; Rosendorff and Sandler, 2004:8; Wenzlaff, 2004:10; Fuka, Obrsalova and Langasek, 2010:3).

Both Bueno de Mesquita (2007:9) and Powell (2007:527) characterised the optimal division of counterterrorism resources in game theoretic model. Bueno de Mesquita’s (2007:9) analysis was restricted to a zero-sum game between the terrorists and the government where the government allocates resources prior to the terrorists attacking. Powell (2007) allows for more generality, encompassing games that are need not be zero-sum. However, Bueno de Mesquita (2007) and Powell (2007) did not fully consider the stage game of domestic terrorism spiralling into international terrorism. As such, the equilibrium analysis of the optimal resource allocation may be misguided. In the same vein, Tarar (2008) developed a formal model of the strategic decisions of terrorists to attack domestic targets versus international targets, however, as with above, he did not provide the terrorist, or opposition group, with a chance to make multiple moves and strategically change tactics.

Another example in the application of game theory is the implementation of security measures among countries. For example, Sandler and Arce (2007) used this theory to describe what they call ‘races in intimidation among countries’. Sandler and Siqueira (2009:25) focused on the problem of delegation where voters choose policy makers in two democratic countries that face a common terrorist threat. Saeed et al. (2012:1) see game theory as the weapon that might prove to be useful in fighting terrorism in Pakistan.

Game theory has been applied to the study of suicide bombing. In recent years, suicide terrorists are, however, viewed as comprising rational players whose acts of self-sacrifice further group goals in organized terrorist campaigns (Enders and Siqueira, 2009:28). The players in a terrorist game of suicide may include various agent combinations: terrorist operatives (Azam, 2005); the suicide bomber and the terrorist organization’s leader (Berman and Laitin, 2005); the government and the terrorist organization (Enders and Sandler, 2004); the government, the terrorist operatives and the terrorist organization (Bueno de Mesquita, 2005:3, Sendler and Siqueira, 2009:21).

It is pertinent to point out that much remain to be done to model terrorism and other related activities such as kidnapping using game theory holistically. It is important to note that more empirical investigations are needed on the spatial interactions between terrorist’s activities and the governments. A game theoretic model is needed in explaining the spatio-temporal transformation of terrorist groups or kidnappers over time. If individual and environmental factors are spatially incorporated into this model, then, the government actions can resist measures from terrorist or kidnappers. Similarly, game theory should also address the spatial interaction of the media, the terrorists and the public in a three-player game. A marriage of these three components into a spatial modelling strategy is needed.

2.2.6 Contagion Theory

A number of studies have demonstrated that the occurrence of terrorist attacks is far from random, rather that there is a clear trend of periodical cycle in the occurrence of terrorist attacks, or waves of terrorism (Redlick, 1979; Midlarsky et al., 1980; Weimann and Brosius, 1988; Bjorgo 1997 cited in in Katja and Lia (2010:14).

Another aspect of the contagiousness of terrorism is that terrorist groups learn from one another and successful operations in one country are imitated by groups elsewhere. For instance, Hoffman (1998) submitted that the spread of sky-jacking and other high-profile hostage taking incidents from the end of the 1960s was in no small measure a result of the stunning successes of the new Palestinian groups in gaining worldwide attention through their use of terrorism. The contagion theory also refers to the observed phenomenon that high levels of terrorism in one country often are associated with increased incidents of terrorism in neighbouring states in the region, whether by the same organization, by ‘second-generation’ groups, by foreign sympathizers and coalition partners, or simply by imitators (Corrado, 2008). Many other terrorist techniques are also communicated worldwide, including expertise in constructing the number one terrorist weapon.

Recent studies on the use of Improvised Explosive Device (IED) in cars by Islamist groups suggest ‘a global bomb-making network’, as the same designs for car bombs have been found at terrorist attack sites in Africa, the Middle East and Asia (Johnston, 2004). In a cross-country quantitative analysis based on the ITERATE dataset for all countries in the period 1968-1977, Lai (2004:29) applied contagion theory and found support for the hypothesis that ‘the greater the amount of terrorism in a state’s region, the greater the amount of terrorism a state is likely to face in the year that follows.’

Katja and Lia (2010:14) applied contagion theory to explain facts and fiction in theories of terrorism, they assert that high level of terrorism in one month is likely to be followed by few incidents in the next month, suggesting that the decision by terrorist groups to launch an attack is influenced by similar attacks elsewhere, hence, the ‘concept of contagion’.

Despite the widespread use and the popularity of the concept of contagion, it has not been used extensively in the literature as a unitary framework to explain the wave of terrorism, especially terrorism studies carried out within Nigeria. The existing applications of contagion theory (such as those of Lai (2004; Johnston, 2004; Corrado, 2008; Katja and Lia, 2010) to empirical case studies have focused mainly on foreign countries. It seems that the recent terrorism act especially in the middle east countries like the Palestine and the Afghanistan have infected African countries like Nigeria and brought domestic terrorism into the front burner. This calls for further empirical investigation.

3. Review of the Methodological Literature

This section examines review of the methodological literature. Terrorism studies have been criticised for its poor research methods and procedures, in particular, its over-reliance on secondary data and general failure to undertake primary research (Zulaika and Douglass, 2006 cited in Jackson, Gunning and Smyth, 2007:4). However, several terrorism-related studies have been investigated with different data sources, techniques and methodologies. These are categorised into primary and secondary data sources. And each of has been analysed using both quantitative and qualitative techniques.

Methodologically, there are different sources of data that can be employed to study terrorism such as historical records, documents, recording of notes, tapes and films, information from official and semi-official reports, articles and editorials in various reliable news-papers, magazines, journals, Global Terrorist Databases published from time to time and Police records at national level etc. I have referred to all these necessary documents and published sources which are absolutely essential for any terrorism study and most studies in the literature employed them as a source of secondary data.

Much of the empirical studies on terrorism in the literature have relied primarily on events data that draw information from each terrorist event from the media. For example, the number of terrorists, the type of events, number of deaths, and venues etc are coded for researchers. Most researchers make use of secondary data and the most widely used dataset is International Terrorism Attributes of Terrorist Events (ITERATE), which was originally devised by Mickolus (1982) and later updated by Mickolus, Sandler, Murdock and Flemming (2006), which contains information on about 15,000 transnational terrorist incidents from 1968 to 2005. These reports draw from hundreds of worlds print and electronic media services and are the most comprehensive source for foreign coverage of terrorist incidents which are used widely. However, the biggest drawback of ITERATE data is that it only records transnational terrorist events, it is possible that some events are not reported. Apart from Global Terrorist Databases, at national level, Police reports on terrorist events could also serve as a source of secondary data. The main problem is getting access to Police reports and more significantly, some of the terrorist events are not reported.

Several techniques can be used to analyse the acts of terrorism such as analysis of historical records, content analysis based on the available information from official and semi-official reports, articles and editorials in various reliable news-papers and magazines, journals and Global Terrorism Databases published from time to time and Police reports. Some of these techniques are Multiple Regressions Model, Vector Autoregression (VAR), Negative Binomial Regression Model, Ordinary Least Square (OLS), Time-Series Estimations, Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) and Geographic Information System (GIS) etc.

Multiple Regressions Model

Multiple regression can be used in forecasting terrorism, the key ingredient in forecasting is to relate statistically the current number of terrorist incidents to their past values and time (dates). There are some important forecasting insights. First, observed patterns in the time series can be used for forecasting purposes. Second, short-run forecasts are more accurate than long-run forecasts. For example, it is easier to forecast the weather tomorrow than to forecast it in two (2) weeks or a year from now. Because a time series of terrorist events that relates today’s incidents to the past incidents and other influences is not completely regular, the cumulated errors mean that long-term forecasts will be associated with rather large errors. Third, a time series of terrorist incidents can be forecasted without knowing precisely why the numbers of incidents change in a particular regular pattern. Enders and Sandler’s (2000) forecasted in 2000 cautioned about the rising severity of transnational terrorism, but did not foresee 9⁄11. I believe that those that can penetrate a terrorist group can do that and the ability to forecast patterns of, say, skyjacking does not mean that one can predict a particular terrible event such as 9⁄11.

Richardson (2011) engaged this model to examine terrorist attacks from 1980 to 2008 across 56 countries to see whether an increase in the number of terrorist attacks is function of unemployment and higher education. Akhmat et al. (2013) explored the root causes of terrorism in South Asia. The study identified six variables within economic, political and social areas that were tested against the number of terrorist incidents each country experienced over the period of 20 years (1970-2013). The study found that social inequality, democratization, respect for human rights, school enrolment and religion significantly influenced terrorism. Ellinggard (2013) explored this method to test whether economic, political and socio-cultural factors can explain the rates and probability of countries experiencing domestic and transnational terrorism. The study concluded that GDP growth have a negative effect on both the rates and the probability of domestic terrorism. Findley et al. (2015) used this model to analyse the local geography of transnational terrorism. They explicitly modelled local and country-level factors together. The analysis include data covering a forty-one-year period (1968-2008) for approximately 13,000 transnational terrorist events from ITERATE dataset. The study showed that attacks are most likely at locations with recent civil violence, proximate to the capital city and international borders.

Vector Autoregression (VAR)

VAR is practically the same as linear regression. The main difference is that in VAR, you have several dependent variables instead of one. VAR can be used in predicting terrorist events especially those that require intervention analysis because it is a statistical technique that indicates whether an abrupt change in the pattern of time series is due to a particular policy or to an outside force. In essence, this analysis relates the current value of a series (e.g., today’s skyjackings) to its lagged values and to intervention variables. In a subsequent work, Enders and Sandler (1993) applied this technique as intervention analysis that accounts for the interdependency among various terrorist series. Because terrorists will react to barriers, such as metal detectors, by switching their mode of attack. For example, attacks against protected persons (including diplomats), other hostage events (e.g., kidnappings), and other terrorist incidents. By only examining skyjackings using VAR analysis, Enders and Sandler never identified the unintended negative impacts of metal detectors and thus overestimated their benefits.

Andyopadhyay et al. (2006) and Majeed (2014) employed this technique to test the interaction between terrorism and Net Foreign Direct Investment (NFDI). The findings reveal that on an average, the increase in the FDI in the host country significantly increases the chances of it being attacked by the terror group. Gaibulloev and Sandler (2009:40) employed this model to ascertain the influence of political violence factors on Asian’s growth from 1974-2004. The study concluded that transnational terrorist attacks had a significant growth-limiting effect and that an additional terrorist incident per million persons reduces GDP per capita growth by about 1.5%. It is important to point out that this technique does not permits a researcher to investigate the impact of more than one interventions.

It is important to note that less is said systematically in the literature regarding empirical applications of VAR that could cast light on terrorism and its impact on the society. First, improved quantification of the economic impact on developing economies is needed. Second, VAR studies failed to investigate the influence of policies and other events on terrorism time series. There is need for studies that would improve greatly if both domestic and transnational terrorist incidents are included.

Negative Binomial Regression Model

Negative binomial regression model can be used to estimate the number of times terrorist events occur which serve as a dependent variable in forecasting terrorism. Some studies have applied a Negative Binomial Regression model to test the alternative hypothesis that ‘GDP increases terrorism’ and ‘democracy increases terrorism’. For instance, while Li and Schaub (2004), Lai (2007), Blomberg and Hess (2008) discovered a negative relationship between GDP per capita and terror activities, Krueger and Maleckova (2003), Freytag et al. (2009) found a positive relationship between GDP per capita and terror activities. While, Li (2005) concluded that voter turnout reduces terror activities, Drakos and Gofas (2006) came into a landmark conclusion that democracy increases terrorism. Blomberg et al. (2004), Bravo and Dias (2006), Abadie (2006), Basuchoudhary and Shugart (2007) and Eubank and Weinberg (2001) concluded that political right reduce terrorism. In contrast, Dreher and Fischer (2008) found that political freedom and civil liberties increases terror incidents and fatalities.

Ordinary Least Square (OLS)

According to Enders and Sandler (2004:5), the application of economic methods to the study of terrorism began with Landes (1978), who applied OLS technique to the study of skyjackings in United States. Similarly, Economists have applied OLS to test the alternative hypothesis that ‘poverty causes terrorism’. For example, Abadie (2006) showed that, ceteris paribus, poverty is not a significant determinant of terrorism. Berrebi (2007) corroborates this finding for terrorists of Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and the Palestinian National Authority. The study concluded that terrorism is unrelated to poverty. Similarly, Yahaya (2015) found a negative relationship between poverty and terrorism in his attempt to evaluate the economics of terrorism in Nigeria with respect to Boko Haram and Movement for Emancipation of the Niger Delta. While Krueger (2003) and Pizza (2006) found that GDP increases terror incidence, Goldstein (2005) concluded that GDP reduces terror risk. Obi (2015) applied this technique to investigate empirically the challenges of insecurity and terrorism on national development in Nigeria where he showed that terrorism and insecurity impacts negatively on GDP.

Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR)

It is important to note that Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) can be used to study terrorism. For instance, most studies that employed Multiple Regressions, Vector Autoregression (VAR), a Negative Binomial Regression and OLS can equally employ Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) since this model can be extended to capture the spatial aspects of the issue, where the root causes of terrorism can be examined using a GWR modelling framework for any time period. This model can provide more statistically significant improvement over the OLS and Multiple Regressions models in which sample are weighted by their spatial proximity. In OLS and multiple regressions, it may not be possible to distinguish the later spatial correlation caused by the underlying heterogeneity in the regression coefficients from standard spatial error correlation that is generated by shocks originating in one region impacting others. However, the GWR approach directly corrects for the underlying spatial heterogeneity. Application of GWR to the study of terrorism in the literature remains very low; hence, there is need for an empirical study using GWR.

Time-Series estimations

Given the collection of the datasets with daily observation, time-series analysis can be used to analyse terrorism. Over the years, terrorism events databases have been used in time series analyses to assess the effects of changes in unemployment on political violence (Thomson, 1989), impact of terrorist incidents on tourism (Enders, Sandler and Parise, 1992; Fleischer and Buccola, 2002), on foreign investment (Enders and Sandler, 1996), on gross domestic income and trade (Abadie and Gardeazabal, 2003; Nitsch and Schumacher, 2004), effects of terrorist attacks on economy (Eckstein and Tsiddon, 2004), effect of economic globalization transnational terrorist incidents inside countries (Li and Schaub, 2004), impact of terrorism on the economy by sectors (Ito and Lee, 2005), various types of transnational terrorist events (Enders and Sandler, 2006), economic development as a determinant of terrorism (Blomberg and Hess, 2008) and get-tough police responses on violence (La Free, 2010).

It is important to point out that the initial studies on terrorist events dynamics used aggregate time series (annual observations) which can hide monthly and monthly components and hamper inferences about structural changes. A monthly time series of, say, kidnappings may have some monthly observations. By using event count time-series methods based on Poisson distributions, a researcher can now analyse ‘thin’ series (advance time series). There are a wide range of crime issues that can be investigated with the advanced time-series methods such as kidnapping. Times of incidents have been identified by Yun (2007:6) as important predictor of crime. Following this assertion, this study intends to recognise the significance of time holistically.

Geographic Information System (GIS)

Geographic Information System (GIS) can be employed to map and analyse the spatial pattern of terrorist activities in order to determine the location of spatial clusters, hotspots, and cold spots. To determine the spatial patterns in the incidence of terrorism, two versions of Moran’s I tool can be employed within ArcGIS. First, Global Moran’s Index could be used to determine if there are statistically significant clusters in the dataset. Global Moran’s I has been employed by almost every study analysing spatial correlation (Sawada, 2009). Then, the data can be analysed with the Local Moran’s I tool to determine the location of the clusters. Local Moran’s I is executed to determine where the clusters of data are located (Esri, 2012).

The early attempts after 9/11 to bring geographical perspectives and methods to the study of terrorism were described in the study conducted by Richardson (2002) when he carried out a study on the geographical dimensions of terrorism using Geographical Information System. Braithwaite and Li (2007) investigated transnational terrorism hot spots using GIS. In their study, attempts were made to theorize and observe geographical aspects of terrorism. Loughlin, Holland and Witmer (2011) analysed the trends of 17,438 violent events in Russia’s North Caucasus region comprising the three republics (Dagestan, Ingushetia and Kabardino-Balkaria) from August 1999 to July 2011. The analysis documents how the incidence varies dramatically over space in Russia. Using GIS, Lins (2017) analysed the spatial pattern of terrorism in Africa from 1997 to 2015. The study concludes that terrorist attacks have become more common on the continent; particularly in the last three years (2014 and 2016) and that certain parts of the continent North and West Africa are more frequent locations of terrorist attacks than others. It is important to note that their studies did not consider the influence of urbanization, strategic location, and physical geographic factors such as elevation and extent of forest cover on terrorism.

Another issue concerns in the area of methodology is that most studies in the literature did not employ Geographic Information System (GIS) to map and analyse the spatial pattern of terrorism in order to determine the hotspots. This is the most fundamental type of clustering involving the number of incidents occurring at different locations. Locations with the most number of incidents are defined as ‘hotspots’. The geographical location (crime scene) has been long recognised as an important predictor of crime (Cohen and Felson, 1979; Canter, 2003 cited in Yun, 2007). Especially, according to Canter (2003) as revealed by Yun, that the location, where crime had occurred, is the most objective and the observable aspect of any crime. Following this assertion, this study intends to recognise the significance of geographic location holistically.

The primary data that can be employed in the study of terrorism and counterterrorism include in-depth interviews (IDI) of targeted key informants and opinion leaders, questionnaire, focus group discussions (FGDs), telephone survey and online survey etc.

Some studies of terrorism and counterterrorism have applied qualitative method to analyse perception of terrorism and counterterrorism. For example, Larsson (2005), Elias (2006), Saad (2006), Krueger and Maleckova (2009) used survey method to obtain respondents’ opinions on the job performance of leaders regarding terrorism in some foreign countries (United States, United Kingdom, Russia, Germany, France, Sweden, Canada, Japan, China, India, Middle Eastern and North African countries). A survey was conducted to analyse the fall of 2008 in predominantly Muslim countries, including Egypt, Pakistan, and Indonesia (Muslim publics oppose Al-Qaeda’s terrorism,’ 2008). Pew Research Centre (2007) carried out a national survey on public opinion and media on the support for Muslim Americans’ registering their location with the government. Saeed et al. (2012) employed 238 copies of questionnaire to present a study on the perception of tackling terrorism in Pakistan. The study concluded that it is lack of education that is leading the country towards terrorism.

Similarly, some survey researchers have examined Americans’ general perceptions of the threat of terrorism. Survey study in the United States showed a trend of high threat perceptions immediately after 9/11 (Davis and Silver, 2004). However, Jenkins-Smith and Herron (2005) did not find this trend in the United States. A national survey conducted in Canada in 2004 revealed that most were not concerned about terrorism in Canada, reporting it to be a low to moderate threat to the nation and a very low risk to themselves (Lemyre, Turner, Lee, and Krewski, 2006). Zeigler (2010:10) used a cross-sectional research design to explore college students’ perception on terrorism and more specifically, he aims to measure their fear levels and see if their level of fear affects their ideas about counterterrorism measures.

Kipkemboi (2013), Chang (2013), Miguta (2013), Sanjo and Adeniyi (2014) and Baraga (2016) used this technique and a stratified sampling method to assess the perception of different socio-economic groups on the impacts of terrorism. Amaraegbu (2011:15) applied this method to offer a broader look at the violent agitation and domestic terrorism in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. Similarly, David (2013), Adebisi and Azeez (2014:14) and Ogionwo (2016) employed questionnaire, interview, focus group discussions (FGDs) and a thematic analytical approach to investigate perception of the socio-economic determinants of the emergence and persistence of Boko Haram as one of the domestic terror group in Nigeria. The study established that poverty, marginalisation, oppression, social and economic inequality are the socio-economic determinants of Boko Haram terrorism in Nigeria.

Some researchers have successfully used telephone survey to obtain perception of terrorism and counterterrorism. For example, Roberts and Em (2003), Schmierbach, Boyle and McLeod (2005) compared the results of a two-wave telephone survey conducted in Madison, Wisconsin. Tyler, Schulhofer and Huq (2010:376-389) captured public opinion from telephone interviews with Muslim Americans in New York City. This is similar to other telephone surveys involving urban respondents, e.g., the University of Michigan survey on counterterrorism by Curtin et al. (2005:87-98). A few studies examined reported levels of patriotism after terrorist attacks using online survey. For example, Skitka (2005) conducted a nationally representative online survey through Knowledge Networks shortly after 9/11 regarding flag-display behaviour. Harlow and Dundes (2004) found in an online survey of college students that show how White and Black Americans reacted to the events of 9/11 was tied to their sense of patriotism and identity.

Overall, the studies conducted on public attitudes and responses to terrorism and counterterrorism measures have had mixed findings, making it extremely difficult to draw any conclusion. Without consistently using the valid sample size and sampling techniques, it becomes very difficult to assess stability and changes in public opinion because any changes observed may be due to sample size and sampling techniques. Similarly, more of these longitudinal studies failed to examine spatial perception of the factors responsible for terrorism and the spatial effects of terrorism. Variation in the spatial perception is needed, particularly when examining the root of terrorism, effects of terrorism and antiterrorism.

Given the qualitative nature of the studies highlighted above, it is crucial to note that it is difficult to claim that there was no level of subjectivity to the study and in using purposive sampling method, the choice of sampling population is entirely dependent on the researcher. Based on this, it is possible that the choice of sampling population might not totally free from subjectivity and bias.

Although, some of the studies above have addressed terrorism using economic approaches and methodologies, however, they cannot solely explain terrorism from spatio-temporal perspectives. Geographic perspectives and methods can be directly applied to measure the causes, consequences and solutions to terrorism. Hence, economic methods should be used with spatial characteristics. This has to be given further investigation.

4. Review of the Empirical Literature

This section presents several empirical studies on terrorism from Middle East to United States to Europe and finally to Africa. In the past decades there have been increased amounts of studies on the phenomenon of terrorism as it pertains to the society. Yet, this topic still remains relatively unexplored (Llorca-Vivero, 2008; Ranstorp, 2009 cited in Bahgat and Medina, 2013:1) and, since 1990s; studies on terrorism have continued to develop across a number of disciplines (Jacques and Taylor, 2008:5).

Several studies have examined the psychological effects of suicide terrorism (Martha, 2000; Ami, Arie and Leonard, 2003, Liu and Woodward, 2013; Omede and Omede, 2015). Some scholars have also contributed in an important way to a better understanding of terrorism and have provided more effective approaches to coping with its individual and communal health consequences (Silver, Holman, McIntosh, Poulin, and Gil-Rivas, 2002; Stout, 2002; North and Pfefferbaum, 2002; Horgan and Taylor, 2003; Pyszczynski, Solomon, and Greenberg, 2003; Silke, 2008; Moghaddam and Marsella, 2004). However, they did not give serious attention to the social and psychological processes that lead to terrorist acts. More significantly, these studies have only looked at the general effects of terrorism on the society, looking at how these effects vary over space has received little or no attention in the literature. Hence, there is need to investigate the variation in the effects of terrorism. Similarly, studies on the effects of terrorism failed to determine a proper unit of analysis, considering the general effects on the society, there is need to empirically investigate the effects of terrorism at individual and household levels. This calls for further empirical investigation.

A number of scholars have also made significant contributions to terrorism, exploring the societal influences of terrorism (Karen, 2002, Lizardo, 2008; Akpan, 2010; Inyang and Abraham, 2013), the role of religion in terrorism (Juergensmeyer, 2003; David, 2005; Iannaccone and Berman, 2006; Colin, 2008; Saeed et al., 2012; Akhmat et al., 2013; Ottuh and Aitufe, 2014; Chidi, Uchem and Uche, 2015; Ozer, 2016). Their studies concluded that terrorism strive mainly as a result of religious devotion. Other studies include the discussions of women and female involvement in terrorism (Teri, 2004; Bridgette, 2005; Kathleen, 2005; Maria, 2006; Jacques and Taylor, 2008). They established that women were drawn reluctantly into terrorism and they were motivated by personal reasons and monetary problems or extreme poverty. Similarly, Onuoha and George (2015) analysed the evolving trend of Boko Haram’s female suicide bombing operations in Nigeria. They noted about 17 actual female’s suicide bombing missions, in which 15 were successful and 2 were aborted. The study concluded that women and girls unlike men and boys do not attract suspicion and they can easily gain access to places without raising attention. It is important to note that their study did not include variation in the attacks from the female and spatial variation in the explanatory factors responsible for women and female involvement in terrorism. Their study also failed to spell out clearly variation in the role of religion in terrorism. These need further empirical investigation.

Gandaguo et al. (2010:25) investigated the networks that include terrorist groups from many countries; in particular, Al-Qaida global network forming terrorist groups in the Middle East, Africa and elsewhere. Because the main terrorist confronting the world is a network, terrorism and counterterrorism studies are needed to include the networks of terrorist groups in its empirical and theoretical studies. The author did not employ a unitary theory such as graph theory to explain networks of terrorist groups. Graph theory is concerned with the analysis of a phenomenon, which consists of links and nodes. Network analysis and graph theory-based network indices could be used to determine terrorist connectivity. Similarly, Gandaguo et al. did not notice the growing significance of any terrorist group in their study or there is lack of empirical evidence suggesting the attention paid to terrorist’s groups holistically.

Some scholars typically attributed the roots of terrorism to several factors in myriad forms: e.g., political freedom (Abadie, 2006), globalization (Li and Schaub, 2004), poor economic growth, inflation, inequality, malnutrition and poverty (Piazza, 2006), political violence (Piazza (2009), unemployment and higher education (Richardson, 2011), lack of education (Yildirim, Ocal and Korucu, 2011), state failure, underdeveloped infrastructures and security deficiency (Maiangwa, 2012; David, 2013), social inequality, democratization, respect for human rights, school enrolment (Akhmat et al., 2013), international business (Sanjo and Adeniyi, 2014)

Akhmat et al. (2013) explored the root causes of terrorism in South Asia: everybody should be concerned. The Global Terrorism Database (GTD) formed the main source of information for the dependent variable from 1970 to 2013. Piazza (2009) presented a study on terrorism and political violence in Iraq: an empirical study of group ideology, organization and goal structure. The study provided a complete picture of Islamist terrorism, demonstrating the relationship between organizational and ideological features of terrorist groups and their tactical behaviour. The study concluded that Islamist terrorist groups tend to commit higher casualty attacks. It is important to note that the author did not investigate the political, sociological and economic factors that determine the goal structure of a particular terrorist group or the study could evaluate the effectiveness of various antiterrorism policies for both of the group types.

Rodriguez (2014) carried out a comparative study of domestic terrorism: an empirical evaluation of security responses by the United States and Great Britain. The study discussed policy change debated and/or implemented after 9/11 for both the United States and the United Kingdom. This study compared the efficacy of the two anti-terrorism acts side by side for the two countries and a significant difference was found between United States and the United Kingdom. Corbin (2014) conducted an empirical analysis of terrorism in the Middle East and Africa. The study empirically tests the effects of political rights, human development and type of government on the number of terrorist attacks for the period 2000 to 2005 in the Middle East and Africa (66 total countries). Basuchoudhary and Shughart (2007) found that lack of economic opportunity (measured by an index of economic freedom) significantly breed terror; political freedom seems to play a much lesser role, if any. Thus, it seems fair to say that the influence of economic conditions on the production of terrorism is still a controversial.

It important to note that, studies on the roots of terrorism have failed to investigate empirically the spatial factors responsible for terrorism. In summary, less is said systematically in the literature about the location of the bulk of terrorist attacks regarding the variation in the roots of terrorism. There is need to carryout empirical study on spatial variation in the explanatory factors responsible for terrorism.

Other scholars have been interested in testing the causal relationship between ‘poverty, GDP and terrorism’. For example, Abadie (2006) investigated the prelateship between poverty, political freedom and terrorism. The study provides an empirical investigation of the determinants of terrorism at the country level. The study showed that terrorist risk is not significantly higher for poorer countries. In a complementary study, Krueger and Maleckova (2003) separated the terrorists’ country of origin and their venue country and found that political repression, not economics, explained the transnational terrorists’ country of origin. Thus, the lack of political freedom is a prime motivator of terrorism and target countries tended to be rich. This finding agrees with Blomberg and Hess (2008), who showed that richer countries in their 127-country panel for 1968-1991 experienced more transnational terrorist attacks than poorer countries. These authors also established that democracies are more plagued than autocracies by transnational terrorism; however, they did not look for a relationship like Abadie (2006).

Berrebi (2007) corroborates this finding for terrorists of Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and the Palestinian National Authority. The study concluded that terrorism is unrelated to poverty. Gardeazabal and Abadie (2003) considered how terrorism has diminished economic growth in the Basque Country of Spain. Given this, they statistically construct a ‘synthetic’ Basque Country based on other Spanish regions and compare its growth (free from terrorism) to the growth of the actual Basque Country. Their analysis suggested that terrorism has decreased per capita GDP in the Basque Country by 10% points since the onset of Basque terrorism in the 1960s. On the other hand, there are many studies that focus on the determinants of transnational terrorism. Li and Schaub (2004) examined economic globalization on the number of transnational terrorist incidents within countries, concluding that in general, trade, FDI, and portfolio investment of a country do not directly increase the number of transnational terrorist incidents inside its borders. Similarly, Krueger and Maleckova (2003) claim that, though tentatively, their results suggest little direct connection between poverty or education and participation in terrorism. However, they used international terrorism data as their dependent variable, while seeking to explore domestic-level independent variables as this could reduce the originality of the study. Sandler and Enders (2004) and Abadie (2006) all used domestic level indicators to explain transnational terrorism, without exploring the temporal dimensions of strategic terrorist and spatial dynamics of terrorism.

Eckstein and Tsiddon (2004) carried out a study on the effects of terrorist attacks on the Israeli economy using quarterly data from 1980 through 2003. The authors found that terrorism has a significant negative impact on per capita GDP, investment and exports. Andyopadhyay et al. (2006) presented a study on how external direct investment (FDI) is affected by terrorism. The findings revealed that on an average, the increase in the FDI in the host country significantly increases the chances of it being attacked by the terror group. Piazza (2006) examined the relationship between poor economic growth, inflation, unemployment, inequality, malnutrition, poverty and terrorism for 1986-2002. Piazza’s study also measures terrorism by the intensity of terrorist activity (the difference between death, injury and kidnapping). The study found no relationship between any of the economic-development variables. However, Pizza used the average from 1986-2002 for each variable instead of examining country-year data and he did not consider the interaction between any of these economic variables and other social determinants.

Gaibulloev and Sendler (2009) quantified the impact of terrorism and conflicts on growth in Asia. The study concluded that transnational terrorist attacks had a significant growth-limiting effect and that an additional terrorist incident per million persons reduces GDP per capita growth by about 1.5%. Ellinggard (2013) discovered the root causes of terrorism in a cross country longitudinal data approach. Based on the newly presented data from Enders, Sandler and Gaibulloev (2011), the study was able to separate between domestic and transnational terrorism. The study concluded that GDP growth have a negative effect on both the rates and the probability of domestic terrorism. Kipkemboi (2013) and Baraga (2016) assessed the socio-economic impacts of terrorism in East Africa: a case of Al Shabaab in Kenya. The study concluded that terrorism causes changes in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and high unemployment levels. The study failed to consider the correlation between religion and terrorism and also fail to look at the spatial dynamics.

It is important to point out that Baraga’s work only concentrated on four items, which are; consumption, trade, GDP and investment. This is may be largely due to their inherent nature of determining the derivatives objectives employed to calculating the impact of crisis and to be specific, terrorism as a vice.

Koroma (2011) investigated the effect of terrorism on the hospitality and tourism industry in Ireland, Turkey and United Kingdom. Using data from the World Tourism Organization (2008), the analysis spanned from year 1999 to 2008. The study found that the severity of attacks rather than the frequency caused a larger decline in international tourist arrivals across their country. However, it obvious that this study is limited by sampling three countries, extending such samples to more countries might be the best to better understanding the nature of the impact within them. The study has also failed to analyse government reactions to terrorism with more emphasis on preventative measures and on reactive measures.

From the above review of the empirical literature, one could conclude that scholars have taken a strong interest in applying econometric methods to the study of terrorism and counterterrorism since 9/11. However, most of these studies have over-emphasised the relationship between terrorism and GDP of a country or terrorism and poverty neglecting the spatio-temporal dynamics of terrorism. The locations of terrorists and the groups they identify with, may offer specific explanation to the motives behind terrorism and other related political violence such as kidnapping. For example, it is on the record that Boko Haram in Nigeria is hiding in a forest called Sambisa in the North-Eastern part. Their choices, strategies, the attacks, the impacts of terrorist may be highly dependent on the geographic situations. Therefore, understanding these geographical aspects and not just GDP alone may provide advance knowledge to preventing future operations by terrorist or kidnappers. Similarly, Economists’ studies have failed to look at the spatial variation in the relationship between terrorism and GDP or poverty and variation in counterterrorism as this calls for further empirical investigation.

Sidaway et al. (1993) carried out a study on geopolitics, geography and terrorism in the Middle East. Walther and Retaille (2010) analysed the geographies of terrorism in West Africa. They found out that socio-spatial network analysis may be particularly beneficial when studying terrorist groups that have adapted to nomadic, migratory lifestyles. Bahgat and Medina (2013) analysed the geographical perspectives and approaches in terrorism. Miguta (2013) analysed the factors that underpin Garissa County as a choice of geographies of terror in Kenya. The study concluded that the increase in terror attacks is a function of reduced costs of attacks for Al Shabaab terrorists and weak security. Majeed (2014) evaluated the economic consequences of terrorism in Pakistan: geography matters. He argued that the economic costs of a terrorist incident vary by the geography of the terrorist incident. Findley et al. (2015) analysed the local geography of transnational terrorism for data covering a forty-one-year period (1968-2008) for approximately 13,000 transnational terrorist events from ITERATE dataset. Their studies explored the implications of the variability in subnational locations on the likelihood of terrorist attacks occurring locally. However, they failed to capture locations with recent civil violence, proximate to the capital city and international borders, with low levels of forest cover but mountainous terrain, and in urban areas with higher populations and levels of economic activity. The study also failed to map crime across the nations included in the study, this approach could be used by homeland studies to evaluate locations that are more likely target than others.

Lins (2017) analysed spatial pattern of terrorism in Africa from 1997 to 2015. The study concluded that terrorist attacks have become more common on the continent; particularly in the last three years (2013 and 2015) and that certain parts of the continent North and West Africa are more frequent locations of terrorist attacks than others. Further analysis suggests that much of the trend in terrorist attacks over time in Africa can be attributed to a small subset of particular organizations, demonstrating that 85% of attacks perpetrated by actors known to have an Islamist affiliation during 1997-2015 took place in five countries, namely Nigeria (32%), Somalia (21%), Algeria (19%), Libya (7%) and Egypt (6%). His study suggests, that a few select organizations are responsible for the majority of terrorist attacks, it is imperative to point out that Lins did not provide us with a causal explanation as to why organizations employ terrorist tactics. Indeed, it is imperative to have an explanation as to why organizations employ terrorist tactics. Doing so may potentially provide crucial insights into not only the factors that motivate their choice of terrorist tactics and the frequency by which they employ it, but also how best to persuade these organizations, either by diplomacy or force to abandon this means of political contestation.

A number of scholars in Nigeria (such as Maiangwa; 2012, Achumba et al., 2013:10, David, 2013; Adebisi, Oyedeji and Azeez, 2014; Sanjo and Adeniyi, 2014; Ayegba, 2015; Obi, 2015; Yahaya, 2015 and Ogionwo, 2016) have investigated empirically the challenges of insecurity and terrorism on national development in Nigeria with more emphasis on Boko Haram and Movement for Emancipation for the Niger Delta. In doing this, they discussed the central role that security plays in the development of nations for which Nigeria cannot be an exception. The study therefore concluded that false values, as bad governance, corruption, graduate unemployment, bad morality and misleading or inadequate religious education as cardinal causative factors. These studies failed to notice the growing significance of Boko Haram and Movement for Emancipation of the Niger Delta or there is lack of empirical evidence suggesting the attention paid to the two groups. And they did not look at the spatial variation in the causative factors of terrorism in Nigeria.

Other studies have also analysed some aspects of terrorism with more emphasis on kidnapping. For example, Akpan (2010) investigated kidnapping in Nigeria’s Niger Delta. Okengwu (2011) evaluated kidnapping in Nigeria, issues and common-sense ways of surviving. Inyang and Abraham (2013) examined the social problems of kidnapping and its implications on the socio-economic development in Uyo metropolis. Chidi (2014) studied the implications of kidnapping for the Labour Market in Nigeria. Chidi, Uchem and Uche (2015) examined stemming the incidence of kidnapping in Nigerian society. These studies and others have analysed the social, cultural, economic, political and psychological motives that bring about kidnapping in Nigeria. However, no or little attention has been placed on kidnapping holistically in relation to spatial pattern and the factors responsible for the spatial pattern of kidnapping.

5. Research Gaps

The study of terrorism originated decades ago and was based on the belief that there is an urgent need to understand terrorism and counterterrorism. Terrorism is a promising area of study that younger scholars will hopefully embrace (Richardson, 2002; Gage, 2011:22). The following are the gaps identified in the review of the theoretical, methodological and empirical literature:

1. The salient point is that studies on terrorism are spatially and temporally limited because little is said systematically about the location of the bulk of terrorist attacks in the literature. The locations of terrorists and the groups they identify with, may offer specific explanation to the motives behind terrorism and other related political violence such as kidnapping. For example, it is on the record that Boko Haram in Nigeria is hiding in a forest called Sambisa in the North-Eastern part. Their choices, strategies, the attacks, the impacts of terrorist may be highly dependent on the geographic situations. Therefore, understanding these geographical aspects may provide advance knowledge to preventing future operations by terrorists. This calls for further empirical investigation.
2. The issue of conceptual framework raised serious concerns in the literature. For example, there is neither an academic nor an international legal consensus regarding what constitute the concept of terrorism in the literature.
3. The issue of theoretical framework raised serious concerns in the literature. For example, Rational Choice, Relative Deprivation and Frustration-Aggression theories have been applied from economic and political perspectives. However, none of these authors offers much evidence as to why these have translated into terrorism in some countries and not in others and in recent years while not earlier. A fully specified rational choice, relative deprivation and frustration-aggression models could include cultural values or religious beliefs and spatial dynamics which are not included in most studies in the literature. These theories can be tested with spatial analysis to support the initial findings, which have received little attention in the literature.
4. One of the gaps that can be identified in the psychosocial theory is that it does not account for the pre-execution stages of terrorism, that is, all the processes that predate the moment of the actual terror attack. For example, psychosocial theory of terrorism has not been widely applied to the roots of terrorism, during which an ordinary person becomes, through a series of psychological and social processes, into a terrorist or potential terrorist. The studies psychosocial theory to the roots of terrorism failed to provide variation in the psychological factors responsible for both individual and group terrorism. This has received little attention in the literature.
5. Despite the widespread use and the popularity of the concept of contagion, it has not been used extensively in the literature as a framework to explain the wave of terrorism, especially kidnapping studies. The existing applications of contagion theory to empirical case studies have focused mainly on other forms of political violence such as suicide bombing. The application of contagion theory to the study of kidnapping has never received attention in the literature. This calls for further empirical investigation.
6. A game theoretic model for instance is needed in explaining the spatio-temporal transformation of terrorist groups or kidnappers over time. If individual and environmental factors are spatially incorporated into this model, then, the government actions can resist measures from terrorist or kidnappers. Similarly, game theory could also address the spatial dynamics, the terrorists and the government in a three-player game in contrast to a two-player game in the literature. A marriage of these three components into a spatial modelling strategy is needed.
7. Another issue concerns in the area of methodology is that most studies in the literature did not employ Geographic Information System (GIS) to map and analyse the pattern of terrorism in order to determine the hotspots.
8. Most studies that employed OLS, Multiple Regressions, a Negative Binomial Regression and Vector Autoregression (VAR) can equally employ Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) since this model can be extended to capture the spatial aspects of the issue, where the root causes of terrorism can be examined using a GWR modelling framework for any time period. This model can provide more statistically significant improvement over OLS and Multiple Regressions models in which sample are weighted by their spatial proximity.
9. In OLS regressions and the common multiple regressions, it may not be possible to distinguish the later spatial correlation caused by the underlying heterogeneity in the regression coefficients from standard spatial error correlation that is generated by shocks originating in one region impacting others. However, the GWR approach directly corrects for the underlying spatial heterogeneity. Application of GWR to the study of terrorism in the literature remains very low; there is need for empirical studies using GWR.
10. It is important to point out that the initial studies of terrorist event dynamics used aggregate time series (annual observations) which can hide monthly components and hamper inferences about structural changes. A monthly time series of, say, kidnappings may have some monthly observations. By using event count time-series methods based on Poisson distributions, a researcher can now analyse ‘thin’ series (advance time series). There are a wide range of crime issues that can be investigated with the advanced time-series methods such as kidnapping which have received little attention in the literature.
11. Given the qualitative nature in some of the studies that focused mainly on the perception of terrorism and counterterrorism in terms of sampling methods, the choice of sampling population is entirely dependent on the researcher. Based on this, it is possible that the choice of sampling population was not free from subjectivity and bias.
12. From the review of the empirical literature, some terrorists are understood to operate in loosely tied networks that include terrorist groups from many countries. Boko Haram seems to have assembled a network in the North-Eastern Nigeria and Niger, the Militant groups in the Niger delta and South-Eastern Nigeria, the networks of Fulani herdsmen across the country. Because the main terrorist confronting the world is a network, terrorism and counterterrorism studies are needed to include the networks of terrorist groups in its empirical and theoretical studies. Similarly, the studies reviewed failed to notice the growing significance of any terrorist group or there is lack of empirical evidence suggesting the attention paid to terrorist’s groups holistically.
13. Graph theory could be used to analyse the networks of terrorist groups across the word. Graph theory is concerned with the analysis of a phenomenon, which consists of links and nodes. Network analysis and graph theory-based network indices could be used to determine terrorist connectivity. A link here will be an interaction between the terrorist groups, while node is a point where links intersect. Therefore, there is need to carry out empirical studies to fill this gap since it has received little or no attention in the literature.
14. From the review of the methodological literature, one could conclude that some scholars have taken a strong interest in applying econometric methods to the study of terrorism and counterterrorism since 9/11. However, econometrics methods over-emphasised the relationship between terrorism and GDP of a country or terrorism and poverty neglecting the spatial characteristics. Similarly, some of these studies have failed to look at the spatial variation in the relationship between terrorism and GDP or poverty and variation in counterterrorism as this calls for further empirical investigation.
15. It important to note that, studies on the roots of terrorism have failed to investigate empirically the spatial factors responsible for terrorism. In summary, less is said systematically in the literature about the location of the bulk of terrorist attacks regarding the variation in the roots of terrorism. There is need to carryout empirical studies on the spatial variation in the explanatory factors responsible for terrorism.
16. It is important to note that studies on females and women involvement in terrorism did not include variation in the attacks from the female and spatial variation in the explanatory factors responsible for women and female involvement in terrorism. Their study also failed to spell out clearly variation in the role of religion in terrorism. These need further empirical investigation.
17. It is important to note that counterterrorism studies reviewed above generally overemphasized military operations in tackling terrorism. Studies on other methods of counterterrorism apart from military operations have been neglected in the literature.
18. From the empirical literature reviewed, it was discovered that the arrival of geographical studies in the study of terrorism across the world is late. It clear that there is little evidence that the earliest scholars were interested in bringing geographical perspectives and methods to their studies.

Conclusion

From the above, it is obvious that the focus on geo-referenced datasets and GIS has indeed been at the core of many of the original methods and insights found in the geographical terrorism literature which has received little attention. Understanding these geographical aspects has the potential to providing advance knowledge of future operations. It is crucial that geographic perspectives and methods be considered holistically.

A cursory look at previous studies globally indicates that most of the studies on terrorism are directed towards the developed and Asian countries. More significantly, most terrorism studies have traditionally tended to utilize historical case studies, descriptive statistics, or time-series analysis to studying terrorism. Studies on terrorism need to determine a proper unit of analysis. Since terrorism is a spatial phenomenon, locational analysis should be considered holistically where descriptive point maps and advanced computer analysis of spatial data could be useful avenues for future studies.

Geographical explanation should complement both political and economic explanations which have received little or no attention in the literature. Therefore, an empirical study is needed in this area.

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