Loading...

Overpopulation. A major factor of socio-economic problems in the Pakistani city Karachi

Food and water crisis and the climate change

Master's Thesis 2018 59 Pages

Sociology - Individual, Groups, Society

Excerpt

Table of Contents

Dedication

Acknowledgement

Abstract

List of Tables

ChapterI: Introduction
Background of the study
Retrospect
Poor Governance and lack of education leading to the problem
Intertwining of employment, education and economic growth
Causes of over population
Problem Statement
Scope of this research study
Objectives of the study
Rational behind the research
Research Questions
Hypotheses of study
Delimitations

Chapter 2
Literature Review
Natural Disaster and Over Population
Pakistan food crisis and over population
Over population
Bad governance
Population theory
Socialism: An Economic and Sociological Analysis
World population and those countries who are in high risk
Food crisis and over population in Nigeria
Over population and Pakistan
Corruption
Poor governance and its impact on the country
Inflation
Unemployment

Chapter 3
Research methodology
Research Design
Research Philosophy
Procedure of the Study and Data Collection
Population, Sample & Sampling technique
Description of Instruments
Reliability and Validity
Geographical Distribution of the Sample
Demographic Distribution of the Sample
Measurement/ Instrument selection
Conceptual frame work

Chapter 4
Data Analysis and Interpretation
Reliability analysis
Table 1 Reliability Analysisof High Population
Correlation analysis
Distribution of data plotting
Theoretical Analysis
Population control and failure of family planning program in rural areas
Transport and over population
Refugees and over population
Energy crisis and over population
Domestic violence and over population

Chapter 5
Summary, Discussion, Conclusion, Findings and Recommendations
Summary
Discussion and Conclusion
Findings
Implications and recommendations

References

Appendice

Questionnaire

Dedication

I would like to dedicate this work to my family, specially my father who served as a constant inspiration and guiding force to pursue the highest level of educational achievement.

Acknowledgement

I owe a debt of gratitude to many people without whom this research would have not been possible. First and foremost, I would like to thank my supervisor MsTahiraTarik and s special thanks to DrSindhu without whose support, directions and time this research would have been impossible. Also, special thanks to him for answering my constant calls and email even late at nights. It was his undue faith in me that I could carry out a research on an important aspect of modern day advertising. Secondly, I would also like to thank Dr. Dev Raj, for his consistent encouraging and helpful words.

Abstract

Population control is an objective that many developed worlds focus on but not many have worked on it directly as a research. Deaths due to food, water, agricultural crises, violence, conflict could occur if we do not follow authentic strategy, United nation’s food and agricultural organization stated that World population may be 10 billion by 2050 daily climate changes are occurring due to that result they predict that doing agriculture will not be an easy task to cultivate crops. Food is associated with climate change if climate is not appropriate then food cannot be cultivated. Keeping this is mind the research aims at understanding the problems associated with high population, and to see if population its self is the issue. The research follows a mixed method design taking for both quantitative and qualitative researches paradigm. Low Education has showing that Low Education did have significant effect on Socio Economic Problems. Poor Governance has significant effect on Socio Economic Problems.Moreover, the Poor Farming Methods have significant effect on Socio Economic Problems. This shows that the farming methods of the country are good enough to feed the people but other variables are effecting the country and the problems and making things worst. Keeping this in mind we fail to reject H1, H2, H3, H4, and H6 while statistically we can not accept the H5 of the study.

Keywords: Corruption, High Population, Low Education, Poor Governance and Poor Farming Methods and Socio-Economic Problems

List of Tables

Table 1 Reliability Analysis

Table 2 Reliability Analysis of Corruption

Table 3 Reliability Analysis of Poor Governance

Table 4 Reliability Analysis of Low Education

Table 5 Reliability Analysis of Poor Farming Methods

Table 6 Correlations

Table 7 Variables Entered/Removed

Table 8 Regression Analysis Model Summary

Table 9 Regression Analysis ANOVA

Table 10 Regression Analysis Coefficients

ChapterI: Introduction

Background of the study

Population control is an objective that many developed worlds focus on but notmany have worked on it directly as a research. According to the Zeba A Sathar, (2012) the fertility rate is declining on daily basis. This is true, but the overall population of Pakistan is increasing day by day.Moreover, the finding sathar research depicted that Alliance against hunger and malnutrition blame should be directed on policy manager that food distribution is not proper I agreed on it but according to my opinion the main cause of hunger is over population. Karachi is 7th largest city in terms of population among the Muslim world. Different philosophers and scholar said that we are suffering from food crises from years on due to water shortage. We cannot cultivate crops according to our needs; another factor which bothers is the feudal system.

In Thar district the reason for most of the deaths is related to hunger (food crises). And it is very critical and alarming situation if we do not take any emergency steps and don’t make any policy to enhance our agriculture and the efforts to control population along with it on priority basis otherwise we would not able to stop upcoming population explosion. Pakistan is the 6th largest country of the world have population with 207.8 millionpopulation and our scholar predict that our population will lead to 300 million by 2030. It is major challenge which will be faced by nation. In 2016 population of Karachi is 16.2 million and it is growing day by day. Upcoming crisis of population may be very terrible it may cause food crisis, water crisis which could result in violence, law and order crisis. The aim of my research is to notify upcoming crisis and give it a solution with proper strategy. In 1981 population of Karachi was 5,437,984. After 36 years it is 160.2 million. There is predictions that after 13 years the population of Karachi may get doubled by 2030 and problem is that Karachi will not be able fulfill supply/demand for food and water by 2030. Many people attemptsuicide due to hunger hence it may cause a big collapse if we arenot able tomake policies at the right time, educating people about this disaster in future. Increasing rate of migration of Afghani refugees is also one of the reason in the increase in the overpopulation problem.

Retrospect

World population was initially a billionin 1820 AD, henceit is assumed man on earth came 5 to 6 million years ago. It may be possible 50 to 60 years back that a man and a women exist on earth how they came it is an another discussion or debate but in beginning population growth was low as 0.0001%. Then two billion in 1930. According to Thomas Malthus, (1803) (14th edition: 1826). When food was less population was also less. After that three billion in 1960 and fourbillion in 1974 five billion in 1987 six billion in 1999 sevenbillion in 2012,The population is growing by 1.2% yearnot as perfectly as Malthus said but near to Malthus research. It is expected that the population may increase by ten Billion in 2050 and that will be a huge population and we expect that supply and demand will not be balance as expected. World population may be 10 billion by 2050 day by day climate change occur and in that result we predict that doing agriculture will be a big task for cultivating crops. FarhanBukhari, (2016) wrote in his article DAWN that results of worldwide survey shows Pakistan will face serious level of food crisis which is an alarming situation. The global Food Policy Research Institute stated that 22 per cent of Pakistani population is undernourished. In 2016 negative growth of 0.19 was in recordbecause of low production of main crops mostly is cotton output, Pakistan agricultural production rate 4.71 percent for current financial year 2015-16 desired target was 5.5 percent Farhan Bukhari, (2016). Agricultural sector produced cotton, rice and maize by -27.8 percent, -2.7 percent with a o.4 decline and however population is growing faster and agricultural growth is declining which very dangerous for Pakistan in future Seyfried, (2005).

Poor Governance and lack of education leading to the problem

Education and employment are universally recognized as primary tools to promote economic growth. Both undoubtedly play a very important role in economic growth by developing human capital, in terms of improved skills and productivity. Education and employment opportunities bring benefits for both individuals and the society as a whole. Fordeveloping countries such as Pakistan, education and employment play a crucial role in reducing poverty, and in eradicating both social and income inequalities.Considering the importance of education and employment, a plethora of studies examine the relationship between education, employment and economic growth. The review of the existing economic literature on the relationship between the three said variables was performed to find the research gap and solid justification for the present study.

Beginning with employment, it is one of the most important factors to achieve economic growth in approximately all countries of the world but there is a dearth of studies especially in case of developing countries that empirically analyze the relationship between the two. Seyfried (2005) examined the relationship between employment level and economic growth in USA.The analysis was based on ten largest states of the USA (). Chang Kon, (2007) conducted a study where real gross domestic product (GDP) and the out gap were both used to measure economic growth. Using quarterly dataset and fixed-effects estimation technique, the results of for the polled regressions showed that the employment elasticity of economic growth was 0.47 when using real GDP and it was 0.39 when considering output gap. State specific model was estimated using Seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) technique. Results showed that a positive and significant relation exists between employment and economic growth. On the other hand, when output gap was used instead, significant and positive relationships were found in nine of the ten states. In addition to this, by analyzing the lagged relationship, the study also concluded that economic growth not only has immediate impact on employment but its impact continues for several periods in majority of the states under consideration.

Similarly, Sodipe and Ogunrinola, (2011) empirically analyzed the relationship between employment level and economic growth of Nigerian economy. Public expenditure and foreign direct investment were taken as regressors along with the GDP (gross domestic product). GDP was also replaced by GDP growth rate in a separate model. The results indicated the existence of a strong positive correlation between employment and GDP. In contrast, a relatively weak correlation was found between the growth rate of GDP and the employment level in the economy. The regression results showed a positive and statistically significant employment elasticity of economic growth Nigeria. The study revealed that the Nigerian economy is not characterized by jobless growth and the high level of unemployment in Nigerian economy basically was due to relatively low employment intensity of GDP growth.

In addition, Chang Kon, (2007) examined the effect of economic growth on employment for the Korean economy over the period 1971-2005. The equilibrium labor market models were used to analyze the effect of economic growth and other determinants on employment. The study highlighted that both demand side and supply side effects of growth are important and the employment elasticity of growth is determined both by structure of technology and preference i.e the labor demand and supply. Considering the results, the author concluded that slow employment growth in Korea was not only due to the labor saving technology.

The above mentioned studies provide an insight into how economic growth effects employment, whereas the present study tries to uncover the relationship in the other direction i.e. analyzing the impact of employment opportunities on economic growth of Pakistan.

Intertwining of employment, education and economic growth

In addition to employment, education and economic growth are also intertwined.Education is very important for nations to develop. It has been endorsed by the neo-classical and Solow growth models that a positive relationship exists between education and economic growth because education helps to improve human capital. There are a number of studies that have investigated this relationship. Kiani and Kausar, (2010) examined the role that education plays in promoting economic well-being. This was done by analyzing the economic growth of Pakistan for the period 1980-2007. Four different education levels (Primary school enrollment, Middle school enrollment, high school enrollment and other school enrollment) as a ratio to total employed labor force were considered for the purpose of analysis. Results showed that greater access to education definitely contributes to higher rates of economic growth. There is a strong and positive relationship between the two. In this regard, the role of primary education is considered extremely important. The authors quote that these findings are consistent with the idea of (Barro, 1991; Becker,Cronqvist, &Fahlenbrach,2011).Since the role of education is very important in enhancing economic growth, the authors suggested that to ensure quality educational systems, information technology should be incorporated in teaching practices. This will enhance the effectiveness of the teaching practices and will provide greater job opportunities to the individuals in the future.

Kakar,Khilji, & Khan, (2011) investigated the relation between education expenditures and economic growth in Pakistan. Using Time series data for the period 1980-2009, Co-integration and error correction models were used to determine the long run and short run relation between of education and economic growth. The authors acknowledge that education undoubtedly plays an important role in economic growth by developing human capital, in terms of improved skills and productivity.Results of the study showed that though a significant relationship exists between education and economic growth in the long-run, the same is not true for the short-run. Therefore, improved standards of education positively affect the efficiency and productivity of the labor force and promote economic development in the long-run. The authors stated that quality of education plays a significant role in increasing efficiency of human capital and economic growth. Therefore, to encourage research and development (R&D) and improve the quality of education the share of public spending on education sector should be increased.

In this regard, Hanushek and Kimko, (2000) discussed significant and positive impact of educational quality on productivity and economic growth rates. Moreover, Bils and Klenow, (2000), also pointed out, that countries with high enrolment rates in schools experience rapid improvement in productivity, and hence have faster growth in per capita income.

Pradhan (2009) examined the causality between the educational expenditures of government and GDP in India from 1951-2001. Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test was used to check the stationarity of the variables. The results of co-integration test showed that variables are co-integrated and there exists a long run relationship between government expenditure on education and economic growth. Authors also used Granger causality test to analyze the causal relationship between GDP (gross domestic product) and government expenditure on education. Test results showed that unidirectional causality exits from economic growth to educational expenditure by Government. These results are in the line with the results reported by Baldacci, Clements,Gupta, & Cui(2004). Taking data on 120 developing countries from 1975-2000, authors found that a positive long-run relation exists between educational expenditures and economic growth.

Danacica, Belascu and Llie, (2010) also examined the causal relation between higher education and economic growth in Romania from 1980 to 2008. augmented Dickey–Fuller test (ADF) test was used to check the stationarity of variables. Using bivariate VAR model and Granger causality test the results showed that there exists unidirectional causality between higher education and economic growth.

As mentioned, there clearly exists a relationship between education, employment and economic growth. Education and employment both play a vital role in accelerating economic growth of a country. Apart from the direct relationship that exists between education and economic growth and employment and economic growth, this relationship can work through two indirect channels as well. Well educated individuals have better employment opportunities and better employment prospects help the economy to achieve rapid growth. However, this relationship does not always have to exist in the linear fashion stated. Employment and economic growth can also accelerate educational development which in turn can affect the former two variables. It can be employment that can bring improvement in education and then both can contribute toward economic growth. Better employment opportunities help the employees to earn a better living and focus more on education.

Since employment and education are also interlinked, a variety of studies show relationship between education level and employment rate. People can increase their employment opportunity cost by investing in their education. Samiullah, (2014) attempts to analyze the effect of health and education on employment rate in Pakistan from 1981-2012. Labor force participation rate was selected as the dependent variable and education (divided into total Public spending on education and Literacy rate) and health (divided into total public spending on health and life expectancy rate) were selected as the independent variables. The results showed that all the independent variables have significant effect on employment level. All the variables have positive impact on employment rate except life expectancy rate. The study suggests that people with higher level of education and greater health have more chances of being employed in the labor market because they are more productive, more skilled and more efficient. Similar analysis was also conducted by Faridi, Malik, & Ahmad, (2010), whereby they highlight the importance of health and education for the human capital in Pakistan. Using Maximum Likelihood Logit Model, the paper reports that health and education both have a positive impact on employment.

Causes of over population

1. Decline in death rate due to better medial facilities
2. Technological advancement of fertility treatment on doorstep
3. Refugees
4. Lack of family planning
5. Water and food crises
6. Deforestation
7. Hunting wild life in reckless manner
8. Over use of coal
9. Over use of natural gases and oil
10. Rise number of vehicles
11. Effects on air due to industrial pollution
12. Rise of carbon dioxide emission is leading to global warming

Problem Statement

Deaths due to food, water, agricultural crises, violence, conflict could occur if we don’t follow authentic strategy, United nation’s food and agricultural organization stated that World population may be 10 billion by 2050 daily climate changes are occurring due to that result they predict that doing agriculture will not be an easy task to cultivate crops. Today world population is 7.5 Billion food shortage is very high according in comparison with the population growth. Food is associated with climate change if climate is not appropriate then food cannot be cultivated. Keeping this is mind the research aims at understanding the problems associated with high population, and to see if population its self is the issue.

Scope of this research study

The scope of the research is limited at making people aware by upcoming crisis regarding the situation of over population. This is to make proper solution, recognize the problem then provide the possible solution to it.It may help future researcher and social scientist and future generation to know how solve these problems.

Objectives of the study

The objective of the research is to understand how to save humanity from upcoming food, water crisis as if we are aware of the crisis then we can make efforts and proper strategic plans which could help in saving mankind along with it these strategies will also play an important role in developing counter strategies against disasters while exploring the role of Low education and Poor Farmingmethods. To be more specific:

1. To understand if corruption leads to socio-economic problems
2. To evaluate if Low education lead to socio-economic problems
3. To know the role of Poor Farming methods that lead to socio-economic problems
4. To identify if high population lead to socio-economic problems
5. To find out if poor governance lead to socio-economic problems

Rational behind the research

Primary beneficiary of the research would be population department and agricultural department. Both departments are very important Hence population department play important part in population control by educating people. On other hand agricultural department may improve their production by using latest technology. Secondary beneficiary of my research is health and education department because if we control population crisis the health and education department will improve as well. My area of investigation will be Karachi (West).Future researchers will get lot of solution by the use of my research to save the world by overpopulation bomb. I will provide a single solution how to control population manage upcoming food crisis and agricultural growth plan.

Research Questions

The research questions of the research are:

1) Does high population lead tosocio-economic problems?
2) Does poor governance lead to socio-economic problems?
3) Does corruption lead to socio-economic problems?
4) Low education lead to socio-economic problems?
5) Poor Farming methods lead to socio-economic problems?

Hypotheses of study

H1: Population has a significant impact on socio-economic problems

H2: Poor governance has a significant impact on socio-economic problems

H3: Corruption has a significant impact on socio-economic problems

H4: Low education has a significant impact on socio-economic problems

H5: Poor Farming methods have a significant impact on socio-economic problems

H6: We will not be able to feed the people of this world by 2050 (theoretical Hypothesis)

Delimitations

There were a number of limitations that were observed in the research such as the respondents hesidation to respond, their knowledge on a few issues, and the availability of the the relevant competent people to approach. These issue were delimited using the following approach:

1. The respondents were assured that their responses will be presented in aggragiate to assure confidentiality.
2. The respondents were explained a number of things including the factors to make sure they were at the same page when responding.
3. The respondents were asked to refer others so a snowball approach was used to approach the relevant people.

Chapter 2
Literature Review

Natural Disaster and Over Population

According to Michael G. Hanauer, (1998) over consumption and over population is key cause of problems. US population is 5% of the world and they use 25% of their resources. We have to recycle the waste to prevent environmental pollution and consumption.We are continuously believing on technology but technology is working on our past issues like diseases, food productivity, fertilizers. The disposal of batteries is very harmful for atmosphere and we frequently use solar or electric automobiles. Burning of fuel is also a main cause of damage of greenery, fuel disposal also spoil our rivers and ocean. Hydroelectric plants are also one of the major causes of spoiled ocean, natural beauty and wildlife. Over population causes over consumption and overcrowding which results in loss of open place, loss of personal freedom, traffic, infrastructure changes over population results to more schools, over population leads to lower standard of living, quality of life compromises. Conflict stresses are generated due to over population. Around 20 thousand of our plant and species have been used due to our consumption.

Pakistan food crisis and over population

Developing countries spend a higher percentage of amount on food. An average household spend half of his earning spend on food. However Pakistani household spend two third of his income on food. According to World Food Programme (United Nations) report 95 districts out of 121 districts are suffering from hunger and malnutrition. By a decade in 2010 agricultural production is not going to improve due to floods and higher prizes of wheat that is 35 to 50% and it is much higher than global food crisis. Due to food insecurity people are attempting suicide. According to Dr Emma Hooper, (2010) we are smuggling wheat to Afghanistan which losses of 2 billion dollar and on other hand we import wheat on higher prizes. In Zardari’s government, smuggling increased due to bad governance, mill owner and sugar mills owner controlled and stopped supplies to increase the demand and make more money by increasing the prizes.

Over population

Population is growing faster more than seventy five percent in upcoming 80 years and it is alarming situation in upcoming years world populationin 2100 may be up to 12 billion and it will create food crisis due to over population. Food Scarcity in Pakistan Causes, Dynamics and Remedies Habib ur Rehman. From birth of Pakistan we are facing food shortage. 80 districts out 120 district are on red zone they are suffering from food shortage and condition will become more difficult to survive. Pakistan produced 23 million tons of wheat annually and 3 million tons of wheat is imported. Due to water shortage our irrigation system declined 7.31 to 6.36 in 2007. According to Consumer News and Business Channel report Yemen, north Nigeria, Afghanistan, Syria, south sudan are at high risk due to armed conflict. Ethiopia, Malawi, Zimbabwe, Haiti, Mozambique are also at high risk due to climate change and natural disaster they are not able to cultivate crops properly. In 2017 Yemen, north Nigeria, north east Nigeria, south Sudan, Somalia is at high risk due to food crisis. Yemen over 10 million Conflict. Nigeria (North east) 4 to 6 million Conflict involving Boko Haram. South Sudan 4 to 6 million Conflict across the country.

Bad governance

Economic growth is a fundamental requirement for the development of a country. Economic growth of a country bears a strong relationship with the productivity of its labor force, entrepreneurial activities, employment opportunities, and the level of education in the country. In addition to these factors, the past literature related to economic growth suggests a range of other economic and non-economic factors (capital accumulation, technology, governance etc.) that may affectgrowth of the economy.The economic performance of countries varies with regard to the mentioned characteristics. Economic backwardness and laggard economic growth is interrelated with many factors, some of them being low labor efficiency and training, lack of business enterprising skills, less employment opportunities and slow growth in knowledge. On the other hand, countries that are more developed are rich in human capital. Therefore, one can say that education, employment and economic growth are dependent on one another. This connection is sometimes intriguing but can never be ignored, since the amalgamationof education and employment, organized and implemented appropriately, can strengthen the economic growth of a country.

Nations cannot develop without investing in education. Education involves a multidimensional process. It can contribute towards enhancing economic growth on one hand, and productivity on the other. Since the concept of human capital was introduced in the late 1950s, there is abundant research about the contribution of education to economic growth (Kiani & Kausar, (2010), Kakar et al., (2011) and Hanushek & Kimko, (2000). Education accelerates economic growth by enhancing human capital. Moreover, it also encourages economic growth by reducing inequality through improvement in physical capital and social capital of the society. Human capital has been recognized as an essential element for sustainable economic growth and hence development. The positive contribution of human capital through education development is well acknowledged. If educated people earn more than those without, the same must be true for nations as well.

Educated people get better jobs, earn more and are less likely to face unemployment than less educated people. Education may help to diminish corruption in a country, help create good governance, decrease inequality, reduce poverty and improve living standards of individuals. The multidimensional positive effects of education make it a vital component for policy framework (Kiani & Kausar, 2010). Reduction in poverty and unemployment, and an improvement in economic and social infrastructure of the economy are important for sustainable economic growth in Pakistan. As mentioned, education is most important in improving economic and social infrastructure. Therefore, immense importance should be given to this sector. According to United Nations Millennium Development Goals, health and education are the primary pillars of development. This includes that attainment of universal primary education which has been marked as the second most important Millennium Development Goal. Given this fact and considering how important education is for the development of human capital, Pakistan should follow the example of other developed nations and focus its resources on establishing a strong education sector.

Population theory

According to Thomas Malthus, (1803) (14th edition: 1826), Malthus was appointed Professor of Modern History and Political Economy at the East India College in Haileybury. We are assuming that a man on earth came 5 to 6 million years ago. It may be possible 50 to 60 years back that a man and a women exist on earth how they came it is an another discussion and debate but in beginning population growth was low as 0.0001%. According Thomas Malthus, (1803) (14th edition: 1826) when food was less population were also less.

Socialism: An Economic and Sociological Analysis

Development of science can solve all the problems of mankind. Science not only contributes in economic growth, science is not only a technological development, science also means man become a rational we can say more ascetic, compassionate, virtual. Some scientific philosophers thought at that time in 1798 that science will give solution in future that man wouldn’t need agricultural growth. Scientists will introduce a tablet or food supplement that will fulfil our nutritional needs and hunger needs. Scientific scholars believed that science will further get developed.

According to Quinn, (2010) who have great aggression on humanity he says that Human being feel that they are superior and whatever they want to do with world. Takers are profoundly lonely people. The world for takers is enemy territory. Before talking about deep analysis we have to understand leavers and takers theory and mentioned as under: Leavers are those who live for survival there was a simple man who lived like an animal and at that time death rate and birth rate was nearly at same both were parallel because food was less so population was less people went daily in search of food in other word they alive for survival to search and eat and was difficult but was equilibrium.

Takers are those who came with industrialization civilization came with modern concept to grow more to make money and storage for long survival. According toQuinn(2010) thought we have to plan family planning if we cannot plan family then we have to abort the child and further we don’t need the child for several years to safe the world.All human think that world is made for human only but every species have equal rights to live on earth and use all natural resources. He also said in his book billion years back people used to go for hunt sometime they useget something but sometime they got nothing and it was balance of life, people born and died at that time it was balance after agricultural revolution and industrial revolution population hype created and even today we are not going to understand that we have to follow fundamental system of population. He also discussed leaver and taker theory leaver was those people who were living for daily survival they went to hunt on daily basis sometime they got food sometime fail to hunt, and takers were those who came new idea those who played with nature agriculturist and industrialist are taker those person saved food for days and for years to survive but they did not know that we have not to play with nature that will be difficult in future survival and we have to save the world. Quinn (2010) suggestion in Ishmael book stop to destroying ozone layer and stop the cutting down of forests and population control.

World population and those countries who are in high risk

As per the research of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division World Population Monitoring Adolescents and Youth United Nations, (2012) nowadays population size is 7.3 Billion it may be 11.2 in 2090 by the end of century. He told that many areas of Africa are suffering currently with hot weather and shortage of water according to United Nation forecast. Boom of industrialization which is performing to fulfill the demands goal and in result we are suffering from global warming as well as hundreds of species are dying. Africa latest food crises needs long term strategy and few countries as whom names are mentioned below are facing these crisis now:Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Uganda, Dijibhonti and Nigeria.In upcoming years they may face severe problems and need humanitarian assistance. In Asia two main over populated country where extreme need to control China and India.Chinese policy on population: In 1979 China made a law of one child policy and later on in 2015 phased out and policy changed into two children policy. India: In some state of India like Tamil etc where policy made one child policy but properly it cannot follow as law.

No one wants to realize that we are standing at a position where we have to make some strong strategy to save our generation. Everybody thinks that God will come to save us. So it is lack of knowledge and on the other hand worldwide politicians don’t realize this critical issue. Political leaders make policies for the nation, hence they can easily make policies regarding population control. After 200 to 300 years if we are not able to control population a stage will come where paper money will be worthless.Ocean is being poisoned by plastic like cold drink bottles, pampers etc which are thrown directly into the ocean that is causing severe diseases, pollution inwater and thousand of species are dying day by day. So many coastal villages around the world are being affected by these plastic junk which has ruin these places.

Food crisis and over population in Nigeria

Before 1970 there were no food crises after the decline in agricultural growth they were not able to fulfill supply and demand hence we can say that population growth increased ultimately but the growth of fooddidn’tincrease therefore we should have increased it.Increased production of food alone will not solve the world's food security problem. According to the finding of a research conducted by International Food Policy and Research Institute (IFPRI) the slower population growth could significantly lower malnutrition but along with that it can increase agricultural productivity, economic growth and investment.According to a research conducted by the SDPI Sustainable Development Policy Institute in 2015,mostly pregnant women and children will suffer more because pregnant women need 300 to 500 calories on daily basis and it will be difficult to fulfill this requirement as we see the situation, 17 million infants are underweight every year and more than fifty percent of newborn deaths recorded.

Over population and Pakistan

Researcher, Population Council, A publication of the Sustainable Development Policy Institute.Transition Theory i.e. rapid decline in mortality rate combined with a gradual decline in fertility. Pakistan population is growing very fast during last 4 decades of 20th century cause of over population in Pakistan is the decline in death rate and newborn babies are born more than mortality rate.4 Population growth structure in 1951 = 34 million. 1998 = 132 million 2012 = 183 million.Pakistan population is growing 3% per year Akpan, (2012).Pakistan population structure age wise is as under: 70% of Pakistani population is less than 30 years it means population is growing so faster that the 0 to 14 are 40% population Baldacci, (2008).According to Tom Bowden an environmental expert predicted that Water crisis, Diseases, Storms will increase.Nowadays 1.6 Billion populations suffer from water crisis and Tom predicted 2.8 will suffer from, water crisis in 2025. World will not have enough food by 2050 report by zeigler, expected population in 2050 will be 9 Billion. We will have problem sooner by 2030. Rising food cost due to food supplies which fail to fulfill the demand. Honesty, dignity, peace all are associated with small population. Worldwide there is no serious discussion on apocalypse in economics, political science, sociology, Anthrology but few people are dedicated and want to save humanity by huge giant.

Water shortage is a global issue and shortage of water is the main cause of deforestation and agricultural collapse, water shortage is concerned with climate change according to this research 80% of world population is under threat of water shortage we need 58% more water and 38% more land to fulfill demands globally by 2050. Increased production of food alone will not solve the world's food security problem.30 Projections from the International Food Policy and Research Institute suggest that slower population growth could significantly lower malnutrition along with increased agricultural productivity, economic growth and investment.According to this research mostly pregnant women and children will more suffer because pregnant women need 300 to 500 calories on daily basis and it will be difficult to fulfill as we see the situation, 17 million infants are underweight every year and more than fifty percent of newborn deaths are recorded.

Jun 28, 2016 - A young boy sells water in Bilal Colony, Karachi. The city is currently meeting just 50% of its total water requirement. Karachi city population is above 20 million and according to Karachi water and sewerage board we are not able to provide 100% of water requirement according to demand of city, we may provide 50% of water requirement. Karachi population growth is increasing 4.5% per year it is approximately one million of population increasing included refugees, migrants from interior to urban areas are creating further problems.We have two resources of water one is hub dam and other is Indus River, hub dam is dried and Indus River is so far from city of Karachi. One of reason of water shortage is expired machinery like pumping stations that’s why 30% of loss of water, poor conditions of pipeline hence it is causing leakages and it is also wastage of water. Almost 75% populations of Karachi are not paying proper bills of water according to water and sewage board.Karachi is suffering from drainage failure, green covers are decreasing due to shrinking of space of Karachi for example Machar ColonyAnd Rehri Goth. The major causes of climate change are infrastructure failure, solid waste disposal, water supply, sanitation, storm water, waste drains.Over population in developing countries puts a major strain on the resources and conflicts over water as it may become a source of tension between countries.During last 20 years millions of people died by hunger and most of them died by malnutrition. children decreased by 40% to 26%. According to World Bank 702 million people live in extreme poverty.Climate change increases frequently and develops intensity of disaster such as droughts, floods and storms and it creates adverse effect on food security.Long term gradual risk is that Sea level is rising due to climate change affecting livelihood those who live in coastal areas and river deltas.Climate change already affected major crops in some regions. The poor people spend most of their income on food.

According to this report dumping of garbage and pouring sewerage water into sea has affected the sea life. Government stated that in Karachi around 500 million gallons per day of water is wasted. Approximately 100-million-gallon waste water is being poured by industries and municipal authorities. Due to that we are facing by natural disaster most of species are dying day by day due to polluted water hence it is all due to inappropriate planning and another reason is over population.

According to United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund and World Health Organization biological, maternal, socio-cultural, environmental, and politico-economical, are causes of malnutrition. Basically, malnutrition is caused by deficiency of protein and other factors, 90% of women of Pakistan feed their child by breast and only 10% of mothers feed by top feed or formula milk. And most of mothers are suffering from Iron deficiency and infections and malnutrition and it all caused by food availability and purchasing power.

Corruption

In 1993 election Pakistans People Party won the battle. Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) and Pakistan Peoples Party both parties issued the manifestos as per previous practice and mainly gave the focus to serve the people in better way. Both parties also promise for economic growth and developmental programs for people. Although main focus was not on manifesto but the both parties were engaged in mutual criticism on each other. Allegation to exploit the national resources, corruption and nepotism was on both when they were in power. Personal attacks on the leadership of both parties were common.

The election held in 1997 were fourth general election. No government and parliament completed its normal tenure. Elected people were removed by the presidents with some intervention of defense forces. However, in this election Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) got the electoral advantage and won 136 seats out of 207 which was an exceptional performance. This performance was not predictable. Before election every party high sounding promises. The PMLN and other parties criticized the poor performance of PPP in economic development and failure of law and order situation. Finally, PPP lost the election.

Further, the election held in 2002 were managed by the Military Dictator General Pervez Musharraf, although political parties were allowed to participate in the election but the role of Pakistan Peoples Party and Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) was limited. The Military Dictator allowed the only parties those were willing to work with General Musharraf. Key issues highlighted in this election were limited. The political parties were not allowed to criticize the role of military and little attention was given to economic agenda. The issues like education, poverty and unemployment were in focus but key players were out of picture. Religious parties also played their role for Anti-US agenda.

The results of 2008 election were success of political parties. The democratic forces demonstrated the stability and gained the confidence of people. The PPP got the majority and with alliance make the government. Back ground of this election include the democratic force comeback, however, manifesto of parties include economic growth and decrease in inflation. The basic necessities like health, education and employment were given the importance in the speeches of election campaign. Power shortage and other security related issues were also highlighted by the leaders. The Pakistan Peoples Party got the electoral advantage due to unnatural death of Benazir Bhutto.

The election of 2013 were the continuity of democratic transition from one civilian government to elected government. The Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) got the electoral advantage. The agenda before the election presented by the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) was elimination of power crisis, economic revival and tax reforms etc. however, the Pakistan Peoples Party again raised the slogan of “Rooti, Kapra and Makaan”. Economic revival and higher education promotion were the main agenda items of Pakistan Peoples Party manifesto.

Let’s assume that voters showed their preference towards some party due to their slogan. Survey, results shows that people with the monthly income up to 30,000 rupees usually preferred PPP, however, people earning more from 30,000 reduced preference for the PPP. This analogy cannot support the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) and no such trends are available for this party. The population earning more than 250,000 rupees per months have their own preference regarding party selection and usually local or regional parties got the more support from this group of population.

Poor governance and its impact on the country

Inflation

The Term inflation is calculated by measuring the percentage change in consumer prices index from one year to next year. The Consumer Price Index usually give the representation of urban consumer of that country. The inflation during the period starting from first election 1993 till 2013 is not very predictive as shown in Figure (3). Again this period is not covering the exact context of two parties. Initially, the Pakistan Peoples Party elected by the people of Pakistan in General Elections but this party was unable to complete its tenure. Secondly party was also not able to demonstrate its full potential due to army interruption. In 1993 the index was at 10 point and after one year PPP government unable to control it so bar raised at 1.4. During the one year of this Government the difference was 2.4 and total decrease is 0.4. In 1997 election the inflation was 11.4 while the PMLN government reduced it after one year to level of 6.2 and different was -5.2. The Dictatorship brought it at 4.1 while the PMLQ in 2002 kept it is low as 3.3. However, in 2008 election it was 20.3 and after one year the PPP government maintained the level at 13.6 with different of -6.7 with the total of -10.6. In 2013 the PMLN maintained it at 7.7 and 7.2 after one year. However, total for PPP Government is -4.3 while for Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) the value is -5.7 which show that the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) effectively maintained the decrease in the inflation but with a close margin with Pakistan Peoples Party and it cannot be inferred that voter preference is showing any trend towards selection of government specifically due to this factor.

Fig 1.

illustration not visible in this excerpt

Unemployment

It can be defined as number of people unemployed as compared to total percent of labor force. The labor force term doesn’t include the people those are not looking for job for example kids and retired persons etc. This is also very important factor assessing the performance of government. The trend of unemployment of all elections held from 1993 onwards are show in figure (4). The indicator shows that after the 1993 election the unemployment in Pakistan was 4.28 and after one year government of PPP it was 4.26 with a decrease of 0.02, but the completed effect of PPP government was 1.12. The Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) got the government in 1997 and unemployment was 11.4 which they decreased to 6.2 with very encouraging effect of -5.2 after year. There was a big rise in unemployment during the Dictatorship and it reached at level of 8.3. However in 2008 election the elect party was the Pakistan Peoples Party and unemployment was at 4.98, after the one year performance it was 5.46 with a slight raise of 0.48. The aggregate effect of this government was 0.92. In general election of 2013 the value of unemployment was 6.24 and after one year it was 5.6 so, gradually it decreased with effect of -0.64. While comparing the total effect of both ruling parties it can be concluded that the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) performance is better to keep the unemployment low as compared to the PPP government. But the unable to link it with people preference while electing their representative.

Fig.2

illustration not visible in this excerpt

Chapter 3
Research methodology

Research Design

The research follows a mixed method design taking for both quantitative and qualitative researches paradigm. The premises of the research are explored through a qualitative observation of literature and fact findings through reviewing artifacts. The established hypothesis were then quantified and data collected through a survey. The collected data was the analyzed using inferential statistical tools to test the hypothesis. The finding was then again validated via matching it with the literature that was reviewed.

Research Philosophy

The research follows the critical realism philosophy as to explore and test the phenomena deeply and to avoid the deceptions of what are most easily observed. When it comes to life problems, looks can be deceiving. The research selects this paradigm because the obvious reasons for the problems may be the wrong ones. To avoid this fallacy the critical paradigm is selected. Critical realism, argues that humans do experience the sensations and images of the real world. According to critical realism, sensations and images of the real world can be deceptive and they usually do not portray the real world. Critical realism thus attempts to steer between the Scylla of naive realism on the one hand, and the Charybdis of idealism on the other.Given this dynamism, it has become one of the major strands of scientific and social scientific methodology rivalling positivism, empiricism, post structuralism, relativism, and interpretivism.

Procedure of the Study and Data Collection

The research procedure involves the identification of the variables that are established from the literature review, and formation of the hypothesis for the variables. A questionnaire based on the Likert scale was adapted from existing literature and researches for the selected variables. There were multiple questions (items) for each variable and data collection was done via a survey. The collected data was ordinal in nature hence was transforming to interval data via the aggregation process for each variable so parametric analysis could be conducted.

Population, Sample & Sampling technique

The population of the study was Pakistan but due to the limited time and financial constraints was restricted to the sample from Karachi. Keeping in mind that Karachi is one of the most populated cities of the country, the sample is well selected and justifies the generalization from the study. Not only is the city highly populated and saturated, it is one of the biggest business centers and revenue generation hub of the country. Although the research was focused on governmental and relevant departments and institutions, some respondents who were relevant and qualified enough were also approached from the public. A purposive sampling approach was followed from the non-probability sampling method following a convenience sampling techniques complemented by the snow balling technique. As the exact population and place of relevant people in the government was unknown, the most relevant people were approached on the researcher’s convenience, and were asked to refer other relevant respondents utilizing the snow balling approach. A sample of 400 was selected so even with a little less response we could receive a response of 384 to assure a significance of 95%.

Description of Instruments

The population, Corruption, lack of education, problems in the country (in ability to feed the people) and poor governance were the variables of the study. The questionnaires are borrowed Baldacci, (2008) Bleaney, (2002) Brown, (1975) Kiani, (2010) from already existing studies and questionnaires and were based on multiple questions (items) for each variable and data collection was done via a survey. The collected data was ordinal in nature hence was transforming to interval data via the aggregation process for each variable so parametric analysis could be conducted. All variables were measured on a likert scale so the interval data could be colleded that would later be converted to ratio via aggragation. This aggraigated fata was then used in the parametric analysis.

Reliability and Validity

The reliability of the instrument used was assured via Cronbach alpha. A score of .6 or higher indicates reliability of the data. As the score of all the variables were more than 0.60, it is safe to say that the findings are reliable. The validity of the findings and the study as a whole was assured via the triangulation approach as the result was compared to multiple other sources such as the literature and other artifacts. As the findings of the research we in line with the literature and artifacts, the validity was assured.

Geographical Distribution of the Sample

The geographical distribution of the sample was diverse all around the city as the sample consisted of many different government institutions including but not limited to the food department and agricultural department, the meteorological department and environmental experts, the population department, traffic police department and water board department.

Demographic Distribution of the Sample

100% of the respondents were professionals from either the public sector working in governmental institutions, or professionals having the relevant knowledge and/or education to answer in reference to this study. Most of the respondents were men with a few women. Almost all of the respondents were above the age of 30.

Measurement/ Instrument selection

In reference to the primary research, a questionnaire was borrowed from existing researches Baldacci, (2008) Bleaney, (2002) Brown, (1975) Kiani, (2010) and was based on semi structured questions. The semi structured questions used Likert scales to measure the responses in to extremes from least likely to the most likely. The items in the questionnaire measured the independent and dependent variables. There were 3 – 4 items for each variable that were later aggregated to so parametric analysis could be conducted on them. The questionnaire was based on multiple questions (items) for each variable and data collection was done via a survey.

Conceptual frame work

illustration not visible in this excerpt

Chapter 4
Data Analysis and Interpretation

Reliability analysis

Table 1 Reliability Analysisof High Population

illustration not visible in this excerpt

CronBach Alpha shows the internal consistency of the scale.If the benchmark for it is 6 that means it is reliable but in this study the CronBach Alpha’s score is .769, which means it is highly reliable for the purpose of the current study.

Table 2 Reliability Analysis of Corruption

illustration not visible in this excerpt

CronBach Alpha shows the internal consistency of the scale.If the benchmark for it is 6 that means it is reliable but in this study the CronBach Alpha’s score is .686, which means it is highly reliable for the purpose of the current study.

Table 3 Reliability Analysis of Poor Governance

illustration not visible in this excerpt

CronBach Alpha shows the internal consistency of the scale.If the benchmark for it is 6 that means it is reliable but in this study the CronBach Alpha’s score is .788, which means it is highly reliable for the purpose of the current study.

Table 4 Reliability Analysis of Low education

illustration not visible in this excerpt

CronBach Alpha shows the internal consistency of the scale.If the benchmark for it is 6 that means it is reliable but in this study the CronBach Alpha’s score is .632, which means it is highly reliable for the purpose of the current study.

Table 5 Reliability Analysis of Poor farming methods

illustration not visible in this excerpt

CronBach Alpha shows the internal consistency of the scale.If the benchmark for it is 6 that means it is reliable but in this study the CronBach Alpha’s score is .726, which means it is highly reliable for the purpose of the current study.

Correlation analysis

Table 6 Correlations

illustration not visible in this excerpt

As the study is more concerned about the impact of Corruption, High Population, Low Education, Poor Governance and Poor Farming Methodson the Socio-Economic Problems, we will focus on the relationship of the different variables with the Socio-Economic Problems and not between each other. The first row shows that the Socio-Economic Problems have a moderate positive correlation with the country’s Corruptionshowing that Socio-Economic Problemswouldincrease and worsen as the corruption increases with a relationship of approximately 78.3% which is significant at 95%. Socio-Economic Problemsalso has a moderate positive correlation with the country’s High Population showing that Socio-Economic Problemswouldworsen the Socio-Economic Problems of the country with a relationship of approximately 66.9% which is significant at 95%.

Socio-Economic Problemshas a moderateand positive correlation with the country’s Low Education level showing that Socio-Economic Problemswouldworsenif the low education of the country continues and worsen with a relationship of approximately 62% which is significant at 95%. Socio-Economic Problems has a moderate and positive correlation with the country’s Poor Governance showing that Socio-Economic Problems would worsen if the Poor Governance of the country continues and worsen with a relationship of approximately 77% which is significant at 95%. Socio-Economic Problems has a moderate and positive correlation with the country’s Poor Farming Methods showing that Socio-Economic Problems would worsen if the Poor Farming Methods worsen with a relationship of approximately 64% which is significant at 95%.

Table 7 Variables Entered/Removed

illustration not visible in this excerpt

This table simply shows all the variables that have been entered, which method has been used, and which variables have been removed by the system from being insignificant. At this stage an enter regression method was used with all variables taken into consideration and none of the variables were removed. Different methods may be used but are not aligned with the scope of the research hence only the enter method was used.

Table 8 Regression analysis Model Summary

illustration not visible in this excerpt

The R-value of 0.871 shows a moderate correlation of approximately 87% between the variables. The R square value of 0.759 shows that the independent variable (Socio Economic Problems) has a 75.9% impact on Corruption, High Population, Low Education, Poor Governance and Poor Farming Methods. This is expressed as the R square shows the variability in the Dependent variable that is explained by the variability in the independent variables. The value of approximately 75% is exceptional for a social science behavioral and perception based study explaining up to 75% causation.

Table 9 Regression analysis ANOVA

illustration not visible in this excerpt

ANOVA table shows us the goodness fit of the model, which is checked by the sig value. The sig value of .000 shows that the model is fit, as the value is less than 0.05 making the model and the finding reliable.

Table 10 Regression analysis Coefficients

illustration not visible in this excerpt

Coefficients table allows checking the individual significance of the variables. Corruption has a sig value of 0.000, which is less than 0.05 showing that Corruption did have significant effect on Socio Economic Problems. High Population has a sig value of 0.000, which is less than 0.05 showing that High Population did have significant effect on Socio Economic Problems. Low Educationhas a sig value of 0.000, which is less than 0.05 showing that Low Educationdidhave significant effect on Socio Economic Problems.PoorGovernancehas a sig value of 0.000, which is less than 0.05 showing that Poor Governancedid have significant effect on Socio Economic Problems. Poor Farming Methods has a sig value of 0.000, which is less than 0.05 showing that Poor Farming Methods did have significant effect on Socio Economic Problems. It is worth noting there that the beta of Poor Farming Methods is negative showing that the effect Poor Farming Methods has on the social economic problems is inverse. This means that the farming methods of the country are reducing the socio-economic problems and are doing a good job. This shows that the farming methods of the country are good enough to feed the people but other variables are effecting the country and the problems and making things worst.

Distribution of data plotting

The data distribution plotted on a histogram shows that a normal bell curve is formed showing that the data distribution is relatively normal. This in addition to the data being more than 30, and being in interval data type makes the data parametric and fit for parametric analysis techniques.

Abbildung in dieser Leseprobe nicht enthalten

The data distribution plotted on a pp Plot shows that a data is close to the regression line showing that the data distribution is relatively normal. This in addition to the data being more than 30, and being in interval data type makes the data parametric and fit for parametric analysis techniques.

Theoretical Analysis

Population control and failure of family planning program in rural areas

It is only done by strong policy of government to implement control births rule. Proper strategy by judicial support to pass the bill on birth control as previously done by china, the one child policy.And there should be strong decision and punishment and fine on those people who try to break the rules.Half of world population is living in cities and predicted by social scientist that by 2050 it will be 70 to 75% urban population globally. The major problems in urban areas are environmental and poverty issues, availability of water and purity of water, garbage disposal, high consumption of energy and it may cause load shedding and most of countries are facing these issues.Animal life is also in major problem due to toxic substances which are created by human being and growth of human is increasing rapidly which is harmful for us as well as for animals. Automobile exhaust due to increasing number of vehicles day by day producing harmful environment. Growth of urban population it may finish the green world and it is damaging day by day. In Karachi more than 60% of urban populations of sindh live in Karachi, the major cause of over population in urban areas are:

Transport and over population

A major problem is unavailability of transport as per need and capacity to travel from one place to another place. It is all because of heavy population growth that we are unable to fulfill supply and demand. Transport conditions are mostly poorly maintained and outdated. At the rush hours in the morning you will not find buses if you get it then you will not find seat to sit over, transportation is crowded with stressful people. If you successfully get the bus and seat then your mobile and wallet is not safe. In all those areas where population and preventive initiative are not followed properly and mostly all the countries are facing all these problems. By population Karachi is fastest city around the globe. And population is increasing more than 100% from 1998 at that time population were 11 million and now it is 25 million approximately. There are different reasons of growing faster they are as follow:

Refugees and over population

Pakistan hosts as many as 1.5 million refugees, which is the second largest number in the world after Turkey, which is home to 1.59 million Syrian refugees, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees United. Over 600,000 registered Afghan refugees in KP.Worldwide Pakistan is on 2nd number in hosting refugees after turkey. We are hosting 1.5 million or above Afghani refugees notified by United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). Over 60,000 refugees are registered and documented in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (provinces of Pakistan), and millions of Afghani refugees since 1979 crossed the border and enter into Pakistan without legal permission.

Energy crisis and over population

There are several reasons of energy crisis such as overpopulation, over consumption of coal, oil and gas. Overpopulation creates energy crises and on other hand we eat whatever type of foods but it comes our approach by transportation. Another reason is that we are not using renewable energy as we use coal which is not renewable. People are not realizing the truth that if we will not save energy we may suffer a lot and it is very tough to produce energy as per requirement. As the growth of population is increasing the energy requirement will also increase.

Domestic violence and over population

One national charity has seen an increase in referrals from domestic violence. TheNational Centre for Domestic Violence said it has seen just over 2012 by just over 19pc,” said Mark Groves, operations manager at NCDV (National Centre For Domestic Violence).When times are good - the economic downturn overt he last few years. According to National center of domestic violence that 19% increase found in domestic violence over last few years. Mark Groves (2013) said that 2009 to 2012 in these year significantly domestic. According to NCDV there are several reason of domestic violence but one of major cause is economic stress or financial crisis and ultimately financial crisis is concerned with population growth. According to MS Horley, (2015) domestic violence is caused by abuse of power which is given to man by our culture and religion. Third major reason of domestic violence is polygamy more than one marriage according to DrRanaRaddawi, (2009) Professor of American university Sharajah he conducted a research and prove that polygamy is also a factor of domestic violence and mental stress on women.

Chapter 5
Summary, Discussion, Conclusion, Findings and Recommendations

Summary

The summarize the entire research and the analysis we see that Corruption has a sig value of 0.000, which is less than 0.05 showing that Corruption did have significant effect on Socio Economic Problems. High Population has a sig value of 0.000, which is less than 0.05 showing that High Population did have significant effect on Socio Economic Problems. Low Education has a sig value of 0.000, which is less than 0.05 showing that Low Education did have significant effect on Socio Economic Problems. Poor Governancehas a sig value of 0.000, which is less than 0.05 showing that Poor Governancedid have significant effect on Socio Economic Problems. Poor Farming Methods has a sig value of 0.000, which is less than 0.05 showing that Poor Farming Methods did have significant effect on Socio Economic Problems. It is worth noting there that the beta of Poor Farming Methods is negative showing that the effect Poor Farming Methods has on the social economic problems is inverse. This means that the farming methods of the country are reducing the socio-economic problems and are doing a good job. This shows that the farming methods of the country are good enough to feed the people but other variables are effecting the country and the problems and making things worst.

Better basic fascilities, Natural births, Law and order situation which are better as compared to rural areas. Drainage system and over population: Karachi drainage system is in worst condition due to encroachment and lack of planning, all disposal way is closed due to proper path of excretion so solid waste and sewage is clogged. Population of Karachi as compared to other cities is larger so it is necessary to control otherwise it may cause floods, property damages. Another reason of sewage is due to katchiabadi encroachment and huge buildings. Due to improper drainage system people suffer with diseases and face damages in roads.Keeping this in mind we fail to reject H1, H2, H3, H4, and H6 while we can significantly reject H5.

Discussion and Conclusion

Dec 14, 2012 - Pakistan has 3.5 million private vehicles running on CNG (compressed natural gas), more. Hussain, the country's two largest natural gas fields are expected to run dry by 2022., 80 per cent over the last 15 years, according to the Pakistan Institute for Petroleum. Pakistan has 3.5 million private vehicles on CNG. And one of big user of CNG in all over the world is Pakistan. According to Asimhussain (2014) two largest natural fields are expected to to start by 2022. Paracha(2016), head of CNG association said that due to CNG crisis mostly people are using gasoline it is expensive to import and it may cause environmental pollution and third thing it will cause a big economical problem. According to Gobind M. Herani and Usman Ali Warraich(2017), Major factors of traffic jam is over population and due to over population development of buildings , changes in infrastructure, growth of vehicles day by day and it creates space issues all these issues may be resolved by population control and better future planning.If basic needs cannot be met, development stalls and economies begin to unravel.Not long ago, in 1984, it seemed as if the rate of population growth was slowing we do not get enough to eat and over 400 million are chronically malnourished.

A major problem which is availability of transport as per need and capacity to travel from one place to another place. It is all because of heavy population growth we are unable to fulfill supply and demand. Transport conditions are mostly poor maintained and outdated. At the rush hours of morning you will not find buses if you get it then you will not find seat to sit over, crowded transport with stressful people. If you successfully get the bus and seat then your mobile and wallet is not safe. In all those areas where population and preventive initiative are not followed properly most of the countries are facing these problems. By population Karachi is fastest city around the globe. And population is increasing more than 100% from 1998 at that time population were 11 million and now it is 25 million approximately. There are different reasons of growing faster they are as follow: Migration of people from different region of Pakistan. Afghani refugees’ migration, Population control check and balance, Violence and crime and over population (Emma 2012).

Findings

As this study is more concerned about the impact of Corruption, High Population, Low Education, Poor Governance and Poor Farming Methods on the Socio-Economic Problems, we will focus on the relationship of the different variables with the Socio-Economic Problems and not between each other. The first row shows that the Socio-Economic Problems have a moderate positive correlation with the country’s Corruption showing that Socio-Economic Problems would increase and worsen as the corruption increases with a relationship of approximately 78.3% which is significant at 95%. Socio-Economic Problems also has a moderate positive correlation with the country’s High Population showing that Socio-Economic Problems would worsen the Socio-Economic Problems of the country with a relationship of approximately 66.9% which is significant at 95%.

Socio-Economic Problems has a moderate and positive correlation with the country’s Low Education level showing that Socio-Economic Problems would worsen if the low education of the country continues and worsen with a relationship of approximately 62% which is significant at 95%. Socio-Economic Problems has a moderate and positive correlation with the country’s Poor Governance showing that Socio-Economic Problems would worsen if the Poor Governance of the country continues and worsen with a relationship of approximately 77% which is significant at 95%. Socio-Economic Problems has a moderate and positive correlation with the country’s Poor Farming Methods showing that Socio-Economic Problems would worsen if the Poor Farming Methods worsen with a relationship of approximately 64% which is significant at 95%.

The R-value of 0.871 shows a moderate correlation of approximately 87% between the variables. The R square value of 0.759 shows that the independent variable (Socio Economic Problems) has a 75.9% impact on Corruption, High Population, Low Education, Poor Governance and Poor Farming Methods. This is expressed as the R square shows the variability in the Dependent variable that is explained by the variability in the independent variables. The value of approximately 75% is exceptional for a social science behavioral and perception based study explaining up to 75% causation.ANOVA table shows us the goodness fit of the model, which is checked by the sig value. The sig value of .000 shows that the model is fit, as the value is less than 0.05 making the model and the finding reliable.

Implications and recommendations

The research shows that most of the social – economic problems faced by the country are due to the issue with corruption, low education, poor governance and High population. The initial assumption of the researcher was that population was the only issue resulting in the social – economic problems but the research showed that the problems were due to a number of issues and not necessary high population. This research can assist the movementdepartments and the government body to take necessary steps to implement the finding to their national policy to eliminate corruption and to increase education and manage the governance of the nation’s assets while managing the population in a practical manner. Future researchers can focus on more and different variables and can conduct the study on other cities to compare the findings and further contribute to this area. A qualitative approach would also be recommended to collect and analysis rich and thick data to further explore this highly interesting and important phenomenon.

References

Abor, J. (2005). The effect of capital structure on profitability: an empirical analysis of listed firms in Ghana. The journal of risk finance, 6 (5), 438-445.

Akpan, E. S., & Riman, H. B. (2012). Does corporate governance affect bank profitability? Evidence from Nigeria. American International Journal of Contemporary Research, 2 (7), 135-145.

Ali, S. A., Zia, S. A., & Razi, A. (2012). Impact of Capital Structure on the Profitibality of Petroleum Sector in Pakistan. Global Journal of Management And Business Research, 12 (22).

Baldacci, E., Clements, B., Gupta, S., & Cui, Q. (2008) ‘Social Spending, Human Capital, and Growth in Developing Countries’, World Development,.36,(8),. 1317- 1341.

Becker, B., Cronqvist, H., & Fahlenbrach, R. (2011). Estimating the effects of large shareholders using a geographic instrument. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 46 (04), 907-942.

Bils, M. & Klenow. (2000), ‘Does Schooling Cause Growth?’, American Economic Review, 90(1), 1160-1183.

Bleaney, M. & Nishiyama, A. (2002), ‘Exploring Growth: A Contest between Models’, Journal of Economic Growth, 7(1), 43-53.

Brown, R. L., Durbin, J. & Evans, J. M. (1975), ‘Techniques for Testing the Constancy of Regression Relationship over Time’, Journal of Royal Statistical Society,.37(2), 49-163.

Brown, R. L., Durbin, J. & Evans, J. M. (1975), ‘Techniques for Testing the Constancy of Regression Relationship over Time’, Journal of Royal Statistical Society, SeriesB,. 37(1), 149-192.

Chang Kon, C. (2007), ‘The Employment Effect of Economic Growth: Identifying Determinants of Employment Elasticity’, Chonbuk National University.

Danacica, D-E Belascu, L. and Llie, L. (2010), ‘The Interactive Causality between Higher Education and Economic Growth in Romania’, International Review of Business Research Papers,.6,(4), 491 – 500.

Danoshana, S., & Ravivathani, T. (2013). The impact of the corporate governance on firm performance: A study on financial institutions in Sri Lanka. Merit Research Journal ofAccounting, Auditing, Economics and Finance, 1 (6), 118-121.

Dar, L. A., Naseem, M. A., Niazi, G. S., & Rehman, R. U. (2011). Corporate governance and firm performance: A case study of Pakistan oil and gas companies listed in Karachi stock exchange. Global journal of management and business research, 11 (8).

Dickey, D.A. & Fuller, W.A. (1979), ’Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root’, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(1) 427-431.

Drobetz, W., Schillhofer, A., & Zimmermann, H. (2003). "Corporate governance and firm performance: Evidence from Germany." Basel, Switzerland: University of Basel. Mimeographed document. http://www. cofar. uni-mainz. de/dgf2003/paper/paper146.

El-Sayed Ebaid, I. (2009). The impact of capital-structure choice on firm performance: empirical evidence from Egypt. The Journal of Risk Finance, 10 (5), 477-487.

Farhan Bukhari, (2016 ). Poor food security Published in Dawn, November 20th, 2016

Faridi,M.Z., Malik, S., & Ahmad, R.I. (2010), ‘Impact of Education and Health on Employment in Pakistan: A Case Study’, Eur opean Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Sciences, 18(1), 58-68.

Gill, A., & Mathur, N. (2011). Board size, CEO duality, and the value of Canadian manufacturing firms. Journal of Applied Finance and Banking, 1 (3), 1.

Gill, Amarjit; Biger, Nahum; Mathur, Neil. (2010). The relationship between working capital management and profitability: Evidence from the United States. Business and Economics Journal, 10 (1), 1-9.

Gylfason, T. & Zoega,G. (2003), ‘Education, Social Equality and Economic Growth: A View of the Landscape’, CESifo Economic Studies,.49(4), 557–579.

Habib, M. A. (2016). Relationship between Corporate Governance and Firm Performance: A Case Study in Bangladesh. International Scholar Journal of Accounting and Finance, 2 (1), 11-20.

Hanushek, E.A. & Kimko, D.D. (2000), ‘Schooling, Labor Force Quality, and the Growth of Nations’, American Economic Review,.90,(5)1184-1208.

Herdan, A., & Szczepańska, K. (2011). Directors Remuneration and Companies' Performance the Comparison of Listed Companies in Poland and UK. Foundations of Management, 3 (2), 41-54.

Johansen, S. & Juselius, K. (1990), ‘Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Co-integration - with Applications to the Demand for Money’ Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2) 169-210.

Johansen, S. (1995), ‘Likelihood Based Inference in Co-integrated Vector Autoregressive Models’, Oxford University Press, Oxford.

Kakar,Z.K., Khilji, B.A. & Khan, M.J. (2011), ‘Relationship between Education and Economic Growth in Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis’, Journal of International Academic Research, 11(1) 27-32.

Kiani & Kausar, A. (2010), ‘The Role of Education on Economic Growth in Pakistan’, Federal Urdu University of Arts, Science and Technology, Islamabad, Pakistan.

Kyereboah-Coleman, A., & Biekpe, N. (2006). The relationship between board size, board composition, CEO duality and firm performance: Experience from Ghana. Corporate Ownership and Contro, 4 (2), 114-122.

Lütkepohl, H., Saikkonen, P., Trenkler, C. (2001), ‘Maximum Eigenvalue versus Trace Tests for the Co-integrating Rank of A VAR Process’, Econometrics Journal, 4(1), 287–310.

Morekwa Nyamongo, E., & Temesgen, K. (2013). The effect of governance on performance of commercial banks in Kenya: a panel study. Corporate Governance: The international journal of business in society. 1 3 (3), 236-248.

Muritala, T. A. (2012). Empirical Analysis on Impact of External Debt on Economic Growth in Nigeria. Acta Universitatis Danubius. Œconomica, 8 (6).

Narwal, K. P., & Jindal, S. (2015). The Impact of Corporate Governance on the Profitability: An Empirical Study of Indian Textile Industry. International Journal of Research in Management, Science and Technology, 3 (2), 81-85.

Oladeji, T., Ikpefan, A. O., & Olokoyo, F. O. (2015). An Empirical Analysis of Capital Structure on Performance of Firms in the Petroleum Industry in Nigeria. Journal of Accounting and Auditing: Research & Practice, 1-9.

Omondi, M. M., & Muturi, W. (2013). Factors affecting the financial performance of listed companies at the Nairobi Securities Exchange in Kenya. Research Journal of Finance and Accounting, 4 (15), 99-105.

Onaolapo, A. A., & Kajola, S. O. (2010). Capital structure and firm performance: evidence from Nigeria. European Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Sciences, 25, 70-82.

Pathirawasam, C. (2013). Internal Factors which Determine Financial Performance of firms: With Special Reference to Ownership Concentration. 62-72.

Peters, G. T., & Bagshaw, K. B. (2014). Corporate Governance Mechanisms and Financial Performance of Listed Firms in Nigeria: A Content Analysis. Global Journal of Contemporary Research in Accounting, Auditing and Business Ethics (GJCRA)(ISSN: 2311-3162) , 1 (2).

Pradhan, R.P. (2009), ‘Education and Economic Growth in India: Using Error Correction Modelling’, International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 25(1),139-147.

Sala-i-Martin, X. (1997), ‘I Just Ran Two Million Regressions’, American Economic Review, 87(1), 178-183.

Samiullah. (2014), ‘Relationship between Education, Health and Employment. A Time Series Analysis of Pakistan’, Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 5(7), 50-54.

Seyfried, W. (2005), ‘Examining the Relationship between Employment and Economic Growth in the Ten Largest States’ Southwestern Economic Review, pp. 13-24.

Sodipe, Q.A., & Ogunrinola. Q.I. (2011), ‘Employment and Economic Growth Nexus in Nigeria’ International Journal of Business and Social Science, 11, (2), 232-239.

Thomas Malthus. 1803 (14th edition: 1826). An Essay on the Principle of Population. London: J.M. Dent, pp. 1-24 passim.

Tailab, M. M. (2014). The Effect of Capital Structure on Profitability of Energy American Firms. International Journal of Business and Management Invention, 3 (12) , 54-61.

Umar, M., Tanveer, Z., Aslam, S., & Sajid, M. (2012). Impact of Capital Structure on Firms’ Financial Performance: Evidence from Pakistan. Research Journal of Finance and Accounting, 3 (9).

Vo, D. H., & Nguyen, T. M. (2014). The impact of corporate governance on firm performance: Empirical study in Vietnam. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 6 (6), 1.

Yasser, Q. R., Entebang, H., & Mansor Shazali, A. (2011). Corporate governance and firm performance in Pakistan: The case of Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE)-30. Journal of economics and international finance, 3 (8), 482-491

Zeitun, R., & Tian, G. G. (2007). Capital structure and corporate performance: evidence from Jordan. Australasian Accounting, Business and Finance Journal, 1 (4).

Zeba A Sathar,(2012). Pakistan’s Population Prospects, 2010–2030: A Glass Half Full or Half Empty ? Population Council Islamabad Pakistan,79-95|

Appendice
Questionnaire

This survey is being done to collect data for my MS thesis for the fulfilment of my MS degree at Greenwich University. All information collected will be presented in aggregate to assure complete confidentiality of the respondents. Please note that you have the right to refuse to attempt the survey at any time during the process. Your cooperation and response will be greatly appreciated.

1. You are

- Male
- Female

2. Your ager

- Less than 20
- 20 – 25
- 26- 30
- 30+

illustration not visible in this excerpt

Author

Share

Previous

Title: Overpopulation. A major factor of socio-economic problems in the Pakistani city Karachi