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Population Projection of Bangladesh: What Is There In 2061?

Academic Paper 2018 41 Pages

Geography / Earth Science - Demographics, Urban Management, Planning

Excerpt

Table of Contents

Introduction

Fertility

Mortality

Total Population (projected) Trend Scenario in Bangladesh

Conclusion

References

Introduction

The growth population of Bangladesh is increasing rapidly since its independence. BBS (2015) claimed that it may be because of the improvement of literacy rate, reduction of gender disparity, declination of maternal and child mortality rates, better medical technology and immense public health campaigns across the country. Because of the limited resource and increasing population the population projection is a hot cake for the upcoming tomorrow of the country. This population projections can be used for a lot of number of purposes. It provides a tool for analyzing the components of population growth and the sensitivity of underlying the assumptions. The most important use of population projections is in the role they can play as a rational basis for decision making for Bangladesh (BBS, 2015). This study aims to analyze the population dynamics and their role for projecting future population of Bangladesh using “Spectrum (DemProj) software”.

Fertility

The fertility assumption can be summarized that, the medium scenario assumes that the TFR will drop to 2.1 (“replacement” level) in the 2031-36 period, and it will also drop to 1.9 in 2061. there are several assumptions has been addressed. The early marriage is still high in Bangladesh with 66 per cent of girls are married before the age of 18 (Kamal et al., 2015).

Again contraceptive prevalence rate is still not enough with 62.4 percent and 52 percent any modern method (BDHS 2014). On the other hand decreasing infant mortality which is 38 in 2014 following 87 in 1993-94 may have a great impact in fertility reduction and fertility preference in future (BDHS 2014). Increasing women empowerment, education, labour force participation, access to mass media and reducing level of poverty may have a profound impact on reducing fertility and it may continue in the coming decades till 2061 ( Khuda & Hossain, 1996).

Figure 1: Fertility assumption (Total fertility rate)

Abbildung in dieser Leseprobe nicht enthalten

Source: Projected by author himself

Mortality

The mortality assumptions are based on several assumptions. Firstly infant mortality in Bangladesh is decreasing which was found 38 in 2014 following 87 in 1993-94, it may have a great impact in increasing life expectancy (BDHS 2014). Again the MMR in Bangladesh although declined between 2001 and 2010 but has now stalled. The MMR estimate from the BMMS 2016 is 196 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births which is similar to the estimate of BMMS 2010. Bangladesh is now experiencing the third stage of epidemiological transition which is age of degenerative & manmade diseases (Taylor, 2012; BBS, 2015).

FUO, ulcer, arthritis, high blood pressure, acute respiratory infection, diarrhea, dysentery all of these diseases are mostly higher among the population on the other hand heart attack, cancer, respiratory diseases , pneumonia all of these were found major causes of death among the population (BBS 2017) . The country is actually experiencing double burden of diseases (Islam et al., 2014). But in future the country may face “the age of emerging infectious diseases” and also “the age of medical technology”, where the compression of mortality and morbidity including improvement in health care services following the previous trend will be a big issue. That’s why in medium scenario male life expectancy in 2061 will be 75 years almost and for female it will be almost 78 years and both will be 76.5 years.

Figure 2: Life Expectancy (Both)

Abbildung in dieser Leseprobe nicht enthalten

Source: Projected by author himself

Figure 3: Life Expectancy (Male)

Abbildung in dieser Leseprobe nicht enthalten

Source: Projected by author himself

Figure 4: Life Expectancy (Female)

Abbildung in dieser Leseprobe nicht enthalten

Source: Projected by author himself

Total Population (projected) Trend Scenario in Bangladesh

Total Population of Bangladesh will increase in the future days. Both male and female will be increased at a similar pace. In 2011 total population was 151,185,264 where male was 76,351,240 and female was 74,834,024. Following this, total population will be 214,654,296 where male and female contribute 107,305,112 and 107,349,184 population respectively.

Figure 5: Population Projection (2011-2061)

Abbildung in dieser Leseprobe nicht enthalten

Source: Projected by author himself

The projected 2061 age pyramid would be similar “coffin-shaped” to that of the presently developed countries. Short base bars shows that fertility will be below replacement. The pyramid shows higher dependency ratio in 2061. Again the elderly population will increase then never before in coming decades in Bangladesh where there will be more female than male in older age.

Figure 6: Population Pyramid all age groups (percent)

Abbildung in dieser Leseprobe nicht enthalten

Source: Projected by author himself

Conclusion

The population of Bangladesh is really alarming as the projection says it will be 214,654,296 in 2061. This impact of over population is so grievous that there is no other way than solving the problem as quick as possible. Either the country has to utilize the existing population converting them into human resource or it need to change the rapid growth of population for ensuring better future.

References

Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). (2015). Health and Morbidity Status Survey 2014, Statistics and Informatics Division, Ministry of Planning, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh

Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). (2015). Population Projection of Bangladesh: Dynamics and Trends, Statistics and Informatics Division, Ministry of Planning, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh

Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). (2017). Report on Bangladesh Sample Vital Statistics 2016, Statistics and Informatics Division (Sid), Ministry of Planning Government of The People’s Republic of Bangladesh

Barkat-e-Khuda, & Hossain, M. B. (1996). Fertility decline in Bangladesh: toward an understanding of major causes. Health Transition Review, 155-167.

Islam, S. R. U., Rahman, F., & Siddiqui, M. M. R. (2014). Bangladesh is Experiencing Double Burden with Infectious Diseases and Non-communicable Diseases (NCD's): An Issue of Emerging Epidemics. Anwer Khan Modern Medical College Journal, 5 (1), 46-50.

Kamal, S. M., Hassan, C. H., Alam, G. M., & Ying, Y. (2015). Child marriage in Bangladesh: Trends and determinants. Journal of biosocial Science, 47 (1), 120-139

National Institute of Population Research and Training (NIPORT); Mitra and Associates; Macro International. Bangladesh demographic and health survey 2014. Dhaka: Bangladesh and Calverton; Maryland USA.

Taylor, N.M. (2012). Is Bangladesh Going through an Epidemiological and Nutritional Transition? Division of Biological Anthropology, Department of Archaeology and Anthropology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK

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Details

Pages
41
Year
2018
File size
949 KB
Language
English
Catalog Number
v413008
Institution / College
University of Dhaka
Grade
Good
Tags
population projection bangladesh what there

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Title: Population Projection of Bangladesh: What Is There In 2061?