How Safety and Security influence the decision of tourists to visit another destination

Table of Contents

Introduction

1 Literature Review
1.1 Introduction
Definitions
1.2 Factors that influence Tourism Development
1.3 Theories of tourist motives
1.4 The comprehensive theories of motivation
The needs and aspirations
1.5 Theories of tourist motivation
1.6 Limitations of the comprehensive theories
1.7 The expectation theories of motivation
1.8 Valuation of the approach for the analysis of tourist motives
1.9 Holidays decision making
The stage preceding the purchase decision
The purchase decision
1.10 A simple model of tourist decision making
1.11 Moutinho’s model of tourist behaviour
1.12 Evaluation of decision making models
1.13 Segmentation approaches
“Institutional” segmentation
Demographic and geo-demographic segmentation
A priori and a posteriori approaches
Other segmentations
Styles of travel segmentation
Segmentation according to recreation activities
1.14 Typologies of tourists (or psychographic segmentation)
The concept of way of living and psychographic methodology
Lifestyle typologies in tourism
New European Life Style – Eurostyles
Evaluation of typologies and final results
1.15 Political instability and recent global incidents
Assessment of Political Instability and Risk
1.16 Terrorism and Tourism
1.17 Media – Crisis Management and Destination Image
1.19 Safety and Security at a National Level

2 Tourism in Greece
2.1 Tourism and Greek economy
2.2 Advantages of Greek tourism
2.3 Disadvantages of Greek tourism
2.4 Greek Economic Crisis
2.5 Greek tourism and International Economic Crisis
2.6 Tourist arrivals in Greece – 2011 & 2012
2.7 Travel balance
2.8 Greece – Political Instability 2012

3 Research Methodology
3.1 Research Philosophy (Positivism vs. Phenomenology)
3.2 Research Approach (Inductive vs. Deductive)
3.3 Research Types
3.4 Research Methods
3.5 Sampling methods
3.6 Data Collection Methods
Questionnaire
Preparing the questionnaire
Questionnaire Creation

4 Research Findings

5 Proposals

Conclusion

Appendix

Reference List

Abstract

The present thesis uses secondary data and quantitative research to discuss political instability and its effects on the Greek tourism industry and Greek economy

The thesis presents a number of proposals on how Greece can protect its tourism industry from political instability. The emphasis is given to crisis management and disaster management planning to alleviate the negative economic effects of political instability. In addition, all theories associated to tourism motivation and decision making are studied

Keywords: tourism, Greece, political instability, revolution, quantitative research

Introduction

Tourism is an important sector for the economy of a lot of countries and many of them depend their survival on it. However, tourism is a quite fragile sector (Maditinos & Vassiliadis, 2008) because it is affected by political stability. Tourists seek relaxation, comfort and safety and these can be available only when the political situation of the tourism destination is stable (Hwa Hong et al., 1999).

In addition, the money spent by a tourist for accommodation cannot be refunded so the risk involved due to political instability is increased. Neumayer (2004) reports that tourists are very sensitive to political instability and tourism is susceptible to these issues. There are, of course, tourists that are interested in adventure and riots etc do not deter them from visiting a country. However, the majority of tourists want safe holidays (Neumayer, 2004).

There is a difference between political instability and political violence. According to Neumayer (2004) violence concerns the act of harming someone by using physical force. Political violence is the violence exerted by the government or by groups opposing the government. The motive of political violence is politics (Neumayer, 2004).

When there is no turmoil in a country, then it is supported that this country is characterized by political stability. Political instability troubles not only the country in question but it affects tourism of the neighbouring countries as well.

In a risk management tourism report concerning the Asia Pacific Region on behalf of APEC, Moore (2004) states: “In times of crisis the first thing that should interest us for every tourist destination are the visitors. Due to the fact that tourists are away from home, in unfamiliar surroundings, one can easily be disorientated and this is because they are based on the locals and their host communities in general. Sufficient programming for what was previously regards as “unexpected” may be the difference between a well managed problem and a human and economic disaster.”

The catalyst on the above report was the terrorist attacks with bombs in Bali in October 2002. However, these remarks have been proved right to the same extent as the remarks done on the tsunami disaster on December 24th 2004 whereas thousands of people from different nationalities counted on the local inhabitants for their survival.

Aim of the present thesis

The aim of the present thesis is to examine the direct and indirect threats that can influence tourism industry. In general, security concerns the prevention of injury or damage of people and/or groups (Wilks, 2003a). While technically the term 'security' covers the main threats to tourists, quite often in the travel and tourism literature is divided between health, safety and protection. This separation reflects mainly the background and orientation of different disciplines working in this field.

Objectives

Safety and security influence tourists’ decision making on country selection for their holidays. The main objective is to detect which safety and security factors influence a tourist decision on visiting a country in particular Greece that suffers currently from economic crisis and political instability. The research objective will be combined with the relevant literature on safety and security, political instability and tourism decision making since the second objective of the thesis is to identify any possible gaps on the relevant literature. A further objective deals with the country brand and to what extent can this protect it from safety and security issues.

Finally, the thesis aims at providing a guide to local authorities and businessmen on how to deal with the negative effects that the lack of safety and security cause.

1 Literature Review

1.1 Introduction

The first part of literature review introduces the terms of political instability, country image and tourism crisis. Then, there is an analysis of motivation theories and their application in tourism. Following, tourist decision making process and behavior are discussed. Segmentation approaches and typologies of tourists with special reference to Plog’s typology of tourists are presented since typologies determine behavior and decision making process on a tourist destination. There is also a quite extensive analysis of safety and security on tourism. Understanding the motives and profiles of tourists is important in realizing what influences their holiday selection, in the present case Greece, and to what extent tourists from various backgrounds are influenced by safety and security issues such as political instability.

Greece is the case study analyzed in the present essay. There is a presentation of the features of Greece’s tourism and the effects of political instability and economic crisis in Greece.

Definitions

Political instability

The definition of political instability is the situation of a country where there is a recent collapse of a government, or where there is dictatorship or a continuous disruption of social order (Cook, 1990). Political instability has many various sites and its effects affect many countries globally.

Tourism Crisis

As tourism crisis is defined as “any undesired incident that impacts on tourists’ confidence to a destination and interferes with its ability to operate normally” (WTO, 1998). Sommez et al. (1994) suggest that tourism crisis is a situation which can endanger all businesses related to tourism and harms the image of a tourist destination regarding the place’s safety and attraction. Thus, tourists are negatively influenced and local tourist businesses are harmed since tourist arrivals and expenditures decrease.

Beirman (2003) suggested that tourism crisis is an emergency situation whereas drastic management actions should be taken regarding marketing and operations in order to minimize the cost of the crisis and increase the confidence of employees and tourist companies. According to Glaesser (2005), crisis is an undesired and unexpected phenomenon which hinders development. Tourism crisis needs urgent actions in order to decrease the negative results and promote the development of the destination again.

Country Image

Allred et al. (1999) suggested that the image of a country is consisted of the impressions the consumers have about a country. These impressions are based on a country’s economic situation, culture, international relations with other countries, political system, labour relations, and environmental aspects.

Verlegh and Steenkamp (1999) suggested that the country image, actually, reflects mentally the products, symbols and country’s people.

1.2 Factors that influence Tourism Development

Tourism constantly changes as a result of larger complex social, cultural, technological and economic changes. Rising incomes and the increasing availability of free- time have formed the basis of tourism development the last fifty years. At the same time, technological advances, particularly in aviation, since 1960s, provided the opportunity of moving within a reasonable time in distant places with attractive features for relaxation and recreation (Vellas, 2007). This perspective has led to organizational changes in services along with the development of organized travel, which has reduced the travel cost and enabled more people to travel, leading to the development of mass tourism and a boom in demand for leisure.

The last two decades, new sweeping social, political, technological and economic changes have greatly influenced and changed the course of tourism industry (Biederman, 2008). The restructuring of the global economy along with the opening of the markets, a phenomenon often referred to as 'globalization', the changes in the global geopolitical map with the effective removal of political barriers concerning the movement of capital, goods and people, combined with the "revolution in information technology" created conditions of diffusion and development of tourism worldwide. However, at this point should be mentioned that globalization offers many alternatives to tourists regarding country selection therefore, any safety and security reasons affecting one country may lead tourists to visit another country.

New markets gradually have a strong presence in the international tourism scene and occupy a significant part of the global tourism market, offering the opportunity to visit new, "virgin" and "attractive" destinations. New areas appear as potential sources, target markets (China and India) or new destinations (Emirates in the Persian Gulf, China, Vietnam, etc.) offer the "new" and "exotic" and compete for the established tourist areas. Furthermore, the opening of new markets (Russia, India, China) and rising income have created new potential tourists-consumers.

The "democratization" of information has improved the approach of potential clients-visitors, by bringing innovation and revolution in the structure of tourism supply, thus leading to even greater competition among suppliers (tour operators, airlines, hotel industry, travel agencies, etc.). Decentralized structures are already developed in the market and have upset traditional balances and relationships. For example, e-commerce tourist services’ companies (e.g. Expedia) or low cost airlines (charter) claiming an increasing share of traditional main "actors" such as international tour operators, who are the main protagonists on forming prices and demand for tourism (Vellas, 2007).

Due to increasing competition, they also adapt by radically changing the business landscape of the tourism market.

The development of low-cost airlines, using regional airports forms a new geographic breakdown in transport which will increase the destinations that benefit from them (the low-cost airlines). Internet has been evolved into a powerful tool that enables management of information causing significant changes in tourism (Buhalis & Law, 2008). The prospective visitor-tourist can get immediate information on destinations and options for travel, accommodation and leisure holidays. This feature offers flexibility and multiple options but also a comparison of prices and deals. This way, the modern tourist creates his/her own package and program according to his/her wishes and needs.

The significant additional advantage is that in real time the tourist has complete information which is updated continuously for services and everything regarding a destination (events, weather, service, etc.). It further enhances the personalization of recreation and tourism (Yeoman, 2008).

At the same time, in enterprises, the implementation of new information technologies, have brought about significant changes. E-business has become a key tool of the tourism industry with significant opportunities regarding flexibility and strengthening of the independence / autonomy of the business in an ever increasingly competitive environment (Buhalis, 2003).

These changes have brought important implications in the structure and flow of supply in services, for example, by shrinking the traditional role of the intermediate links of the chain (e.g. travel agencies). On the other hand, new information technology facilitates information spread i.e. good and bad news regarding a country. Safety and security issues, therefore, are spread quite rapidly affecting tourist decisions.

The socioeconomic changes affecting tourist preferences are much more important. There are already significant changes in the values​​, principles and standards of modern society. Besides, they are not only the result but also the basis for many of the changes that have already been analyzed in the previous paragraphs. Cause or effect, one thing is certain: modern tourism changes.

The travel stereotypes change, affecting the spatial organization of tourist flows and development. The modern tourist has nothing to do with the tourist of 1960's: s/he is generally an experienced traveler and has visited various tourist destinations. As a result, s/he is more demanding regarding the quality of services expected from a destination. Modern tourists are becoming more and more "selfish" seeking to satisfy their own particular interests, which leads to the development of special types of tourism such as ecotourism, adventure, health,wellness, professional and cultural tourism (Sotiriadis & Farsari, 2009).

Mass tourism gives way gradually to the selective or independent ttourism and the special (often called "alternative" - to mass tourism) types of tourism. Under the new prevailing conditions, the tourism market changes and adapts to current conditions. Due to the fact that the tourism product is in no way homogeneous and uniform, the market is divided into separate segments, each of which differs regarding the different characteristics. The tourism market is segmented, differentiated as to the features affecting both the demand and supply (Moutinho, 2000).

Depending on the motives that lead to making travel possible, the segmentation of the market is done as follows: for example, the professional journey which in turn is segmented into individual (e.g., conferences, exhibitions, etc.), leisure travel and pilgrimage for religious reasons, sports travel and travel for health reasons. The possibilities for leisure activities are many and therefore, a holiday trip does not have the form it had in previous decades but is offered for combining individual preferences and choices. This is why the research related to tourism development attempt to discern new trends and motivations of modern tourists consumers.

The key factors are expected to continue to shape the tourism industry (Buhalis et al., 2005) are:

- Identity - Promotion of tourism identity (branding): travelers are becoming more discerning in matters associated with the "brand" and pay attention to the experience of the journey and not just the natural beauty of each destination. The logic of emerging destinations is built on this philosophy, offering from sun and sea to purchases in luxury shopping centers, sports activities, skiing, etc
- New markets - Impact of emerging markets (e.g. China, India, the Gulf states), in international tourist developments: these markets offer opportunities for developing residential complexes like cottages, which opens up a new market and creates demand for similar products (condo hotels, buy for use and let etc).
- Manpower - Demographic changes: various socio-political conditions (such as early retirement and more leisure) enable age groups over 50 years old to travel and thus make the main target market.
- Technology - Rapid development of technology i.e. implementation of new technological systems and the widespread use of Internet shape the modern tourist market.

The increase of free time (leisure) in modern (industrial) societies, the growing disposable income, changes in organizational life and work and the multiple needs and options for destinations have influenced in another way the tourist market leading to further fragmentation and specialization in destinations. The modern tourist-visitor devotes his/her spare time for recreation in several shorter periods scattered throughout the year and not in a single time period (e.g. summer holidays), as it was in the past.

Therefore, staying in a destination is decreased but destinations of visiting - residence are multiplied (e.g. skiing in winter, nature excursions in the spring or autumn, the sea and the beaches in the summer, etc.) in a search of multiple "experiences" during the year, often in conjunction with professional or cultural activities. These changes in behavior affect in multiple ways the tourist market both concerning average length of stay as well as in the seasonality and competition and the diffusion of demand in the field (Hall & Page, 2006).

At the same time, new issues and priorities appear to be of particular concern to the modern tourist. For example, there is growing concern about issues such as the safety of citizens visiting a country and political stability to a destination. Terrorist attacks or similar hazards, pandemics and epidemics, natural disasters (tsunamis, fires, earthquakes), but also the threat of conflict and war, to act subversively regarding tourism demand (at least the short term), which reflects how much interwoven is the tourist product not only with the economy, but clearly with society.

As modern societies return to basic values, they become more sensitive, for example, in social and environmental issues, particularly in response to the ever increasing global problems. This reorientation affects the markets and possibly the tourist flows and requirements as to the quality and characteristics of the local tourism product (Kokkosis &Tsartas, 2001).

Environmental criteria already appear in tourism demand in the selection of tourist accommodation, but also of a tourist destination, at least in sensitive markets (e.g. Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark, etc.).

Additionally, there are many other factors that lead to changes in the structure of aggregate demand and the characteristics of local markets. One of them, affecting tourism globally, are demographic changes. According to data of European Union, the next fifty years the percentage of people over 60 years in developed countries will rise from one fifth to one third.

This is often called the "golden age" in the sense of the greater freedom people may have for leisure and tourism (Yeoman, 2008). These people maintain their mobility and independence for a long time and health, thalassotherapy and wellness tourism can benefit from the demand for that group. While western populations get older and mature, the eastern ones (Asia: China and India) are still young and developing, but their culturally different characteristics shift their choices away from the traditional model of "sun-sea" which is the basis for traditional tourism destinations (e.g. Arabic, Chinese).

These changes, however, lead to a qualitative change in demand that differentiates the basic orientation and motivating power of supply from the tourism product to the "tourist experience". At earlier stages of the global tourism growth, the primary focus was on offering good accommodation, as tourism grows, travelers were more experienced and demanding and suppliers (hoteliers, tour operators, etc.) focused on providing better quality accommodation and services. In modern times, this is no longer enough as tourists seek to satisfy a wide range of needs, beyond their basic needs. Indeed, the modern man seeks increasingly to meet the specific, individualized needs and preferences during holidays and destination places.

Besides, more and more modern tourists are in the search for satisfying multiple needs and desires in one place (for knowledge, education, recreation, etc.) seeking what is called "experience" of the place (Hall & Page, 1999). Education and civilization, activities and actions that initiate visitors to visit local events and cultural events, earn a central role in the choice of destination to visit, given that the basic accommodation and services are maintained at about the same level among the established competitive destinations. The richness and diversity of the cultural attractions offer strong competitive advantages in attracting potential visitors. More and more destinations are focused on the active development of various leisure activities and recreation, seeking to offer different local lifestyles (the experience of the destination).

In many cases, they try to attract tourists through the organization of small and large scale events (e.g. festivals of theater, music, gastronomy, sports events) and often by using their comparative advantages (lures) (Kolb, 2006). The profile of the modern tourist is a key feature of the demand for specialized and specific interests that diverge from the traditional tourist product. On each trip, s/he no longer wants to relax and enjoy luxurious services, but wishes to experience each destination, s/he is active, participating in local activities, is really interested in the history and heritage of the areas s/he visits and has environmental sensitivity. S/he is now more demanding and independent. As social values ​​differ, there are changes in priorities and preferences, in factors influencing the choices for the destination, and thus the competition and development of the tourism market. What characterizes the modern era is the demand for high-quality services and the development of special types of tourism along with the safety of the destinations.

1.3 Theories of tourist motives

The examination of the various tourist incentives aims at their analysis, since they constitute the basis of the tourism phenomenon, the "activating force" that puts into motion and operation the tourist activity. Regarding safety and security issues, it is important to see the type of tourists visiting a country and their motives since if these are strong enough they may counterbalance the negative effects of safety problems and may enable tourists to visit the country again in the near future.

In general, the analysis of motivation in the tourist field is based on general theories, namely the psychological theories that have been developed in other contexts and research fields. Despite the plethora of research and studies regarding the tourist motives, it could be seen that:

- There is not an agreed analytical framework.
- The analysis is mainly based on an approach to comprehensive theory, namely the study of motivation, as this is determined by the Maslow theory of needs.

1.4 The comprehensive theories of motivation

What is the base of the general motivation theories? By answering this question, it can be seen how these theories were applied in the tourist field as well as their restrictions.

The needs and aspirations

The basic concept of most theories of motivation is the one of necessity as the activating force that motivates behaviour.

The motives set into motion behaviour and guide it towards actions that will bring concrete results. The desired results are often based on personal needs and aspirations. The Maslow hierarchy of needs –which was developed in the field of clinical psychology-is the one mostly used to explain human behaviour oriented towards needs. The theory has been also supported by McGregor. According to Maslow (1943), there are five levels of human needs. These are in hierarchical order:

- Physiological
- Security
- Belonging and love
- Assessment and self-esteem
- Self-fulfilment or completion.

When the needs of a level are met, the individual will go to the next level. It is deemed appropriate to emphasize that tourism product and services can meet the needs and aspirations at the five hierarchical levels. The main reason for the wide acceptance of the theory of Maslow is probably its simplicity. However, the theory suffers from some significant weaknesses:

Maslow, in a subsequent study, stresses that it is not necessary for an individual person to meet fully the needs of one level to proceed to the next. Consequently, people may be simultaneously partially satisfied and partially unsatisfied at all levels of the hierarchy.

Maslow’s theory explains the need of travel which may be either a need of self-esteem or a need of self –fulfilment. A country when it needs to develop its strategy on tourism should identify which need to address to. However, it should be noticed that prior to fulfilment of the above mentioned needs there is the need of security. If the need of security is not fulfilled then the individual does not normally proceed in the fulfilment of the other more sophisticated needs. Therefore, Greece apart from identifying the more sophisticated travellers’ individual needs, it needs to address the issue of security and this cannot be addressed if political stability is not achieved in the country.

In Maslow's theory some important needs are not included, probably because they are not compatible and could not be integrated into the hierarchical framework. These needs are sovereignty, power, aggression, play etc. These needs have been incorporated into a classification framework that has been delineated by Murray (1938).

Following an extensive research, Murray (1938) has identified 14 normal and 30 psychological needs, which are classified into two main categories. From the perspective of tourist motivation, this classification provides a more comprehensive framework of human needs, which can affect the behaviour of tourists. In case of emergency, it is possible to identify factors that could affect a potential tourist to prefer or avoid a particular tourist trip. This way, Murray’s theory of needs could be a starting point-more satisfying than Maslow’s hierarchy of needs in the search of goals which tend to be met by the tourist trips.

A number of research and studies support the view that consumer behaviour in the field of tourism is oriented towards the goal (Pearce, 1982; Perreault et al., 1977). In addition, the incentives affect the nature and volume of the necessary information, and the way in which this information will be used to aim at suitably selecting the journey, ie the option that offers the best chance to achieve the desired result. Some even argue (Moutinho, 1984) that there are many incentives and an interrelation between primary and secondary motives.

In this context, another useful justification which connects the aspirations with motivation as it has been expressed by Kantona (1960), who has reached three conclusions from a review of research regarding behavior oriented towards the goal. These conclusions are the following (Kantona, 1960):

- The aspirations are not static and are not delimited permanently.
- The aspirations tend to be increased when they are fulfilled and are reduced by failure.
- The aspirations are influenced by the performance of the other members of the group where the individual belongs to and by the performance of the reference groups.

1.5 Theories of tourist motivation

Most attempts to analyze tourist motivation approach the subject by taking as a theoretical background a comprehensive theory and, despite its limitations, several researchers seem to be influenced by Maslow’s hierarchy of needs.

Some examples follow:

Mill and Morrison (1985) believe that the tourist trip is a need or desire for satisfaction. The needs are expressed in desires. For example, a person may be in need of affection, but wants to visit his/her relatives and friends. The authors note that motivation occurs when a person wants to meet a need.

Similarly, Dann (1981) has identified two basic needs: the lawlessness and the need for recognition and appreciation (anomie and ego-enhancement) as the main motives of tourism consumption, which can be interpreted in terms of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs. He argues that research on motivation does not really set the crucial question, which, in his opinion, is the following: "Why do people travel?"

Dann (1981) believes that there are primarily two categories of factors or stages in deciding the tourist trip. First, the push and pull factors. The push factors are those that cause a person's desire to travel, given the initial desire of travelling. They "attract" a person to a tourist destination since s/he is 'pushed' to wish a trip. Therefore, they follow the need of a travel. The question why people travel thus relates exclusively to push factors. The tourist can "escape" into a fantasy world during his/her holidays and behave in a manner entirely different from the one of his/her everyday life. "As to the anomie, the imaginary world of holidays helps to overcome the gray and monotonous daily life by offering satisfactory experiences. Regarding the need for recognition and appreciation, the tourist trip offers the tourist an opportunity to boost his ego by pretending a foreign personality “(Dann, 1981: 211).

Crompton (1979) agrees with Dann, regarding his view on the push and pull factors. However, he has identified nine motives, of which:

- The seven are classified as socio-psychological or pushing motivations: escape from an unpleasant environment, exploration, relaxation, prestige, returning to roots, strengthening relationships and facilitating a social process. Safety and security issues create an unpleasant environment of the holiday destination. It can be assumed that people trying to escape from an unpleasant environment at home will not pursue having holidays at an unpleasant holiday environment.
- The other two are characterized as cultural or pull factors: novelty or innovation, and education.

Mannell and Iso-Ahola (1987) have identified two main categories of push and pull factors, and characterize them as personal and interpersonal. They support the view that people are motivated to seek entertainment activities, by seeking to leave behind their daily personal and / or interpersonal problems. At the same time, they try to ensure personal and / or interpersonal rewards from their participation in these activities.

- The personal rewards consist primarily of self-determination, sense of power or control, challenge, understanding, exploration and relaxation.
- Interpersonal rewards are those arising from social contact.

Pearce (1982) examined a number of studies on tourist motivations and presented the results of a research conducted in 1972. He gathered a number of reasons why Canadian tourists choose a destination: visiting friends and relatives, relaxing atmosphere, scenery, oceans and beaches, sports facilities, organized camps, good weather, few tourists, cheap shopping, cheap holiday, friendly people, good food, good roads etc. The reasons given in the responses were related to the choice of tourist destination. However, it should be noted that the reasons relate to the selection of the destination and not with the motive of the trip.

It is worth to note that the author (Pearce, 1982) proposed a biographical approach. He has introduced the concept of tourist travel career and proposed to investigate this parameter to specify a "career profile" of tourists, starting with an existing model based on the theory of Maslow. This way, his approach appears to be more predetermined rather than descriptive.

Mill and Morrison (1985) emphasized that "tourists themselves may not be aware of the real causes of their behavior regarding tourist trips". Similarly, Krippendorf (1987) emphasizes that there are problems in research asking tourists for their travel incentives because:

- There are many incentives for people to travel, and
- The reasons cited are those that appear in the ad and are repeated in all the tourist catalogues and brochures.

In his opinion, some aspects remain unexplained in the subconscious and cannot in any case be conveyed into simple questions. Finally, he mentions eight categories of tourist motivation, which identified the existing literature. The tourist journey is: recovery and renewal, replenishment of forces and social process, escape, communication, freedom and self-determination, self-fulfilment, happiness and enrichment of culture.

Schmidhauser (1989), following a research conducted in Switzerland, concluded that a simple tourist trip is not able to satisfy all tourist needs of any individual. Every tourist trip can only satisfy part of these requirements. He has proved that "holidays fulfill a number of important sociological functions" (Schmidthauser, 1989: 570) and cites four social functions:

- Coverage of multiple daily gaps
- Recovery of physiological and psychological forces
- Broadening intellectual horizons of curiosity and satisfaction
- Self-reward and pleasure.

Finally, Taylor (1994: 190) emphasizes that "... we have tourists who obey many incentives and can be called "multi motive tourists" ... "and attempts to record thematic frameworks that systematically interpret the position of the stimulus in the course of modern tourism by ranking the various incentives in nine categories, with the relevant criteria or factors.

1.6 Limitations of the comprehensive theories

The theories of motivation presented above are certainly useful in highlighting a large number of needs and aspirations that motivate human behaviour. However, the analysis of the needs can at best, provide a partial explanation of behaviour. The needs are just one potential cause of the behaviour and the analysis of human needs does not allow to know definitely what exactly people do for their satisfaction. Individual beliefs influence directly behavior. Therefore, the task of forecasting the effects of stimulation on behavior requires much more than a simple understanding of human needs. It also implies a complete understanding of the processes through which these needs are converted into behavior, particularly the way in which expectations guide behavior. These views are the basis for a more recent approach, which is known as "expectancy theory”.

1.7 The expectation theories of motivation

It is a category of motivation theories, which is based on inciting labour with the help of which a more comprehensive framework for analysis of tourist motives can be formed. Most of the work motivation theories are partial, in the sense that they tend to focus on a specific aspect of behavior, i.e. the needs, goals, beliefs, rewards, etc. However, there is an exception, an approach to analyze the motivation for work which is known as the theory of expectation or VIE theory (valence-instrumentality-expectance). This theory could provide an integrated framework in which it would be possible to incorporate all theories of work motivation.

The main background of the expectation theory is that "the strength of a tendency to proceed to an action depends both on the strength of the expectation that this action will produce a given outcome and on the other by the value or attractiveness of that outcome to the individual who acts” (Witt & Wright, 1994).

The first version of this theory, especially proposed for the analysis of motivation in applied contexts, was Vroom’s (1964) theory of motivation, who expressed two equations:

The first equation intended to reflect the fact that while some results can be attractive or desirable on their own (for their own enjoyment), there are others which are attractive not on their own, but as a means to achieve other results, which are attractive per se. This equation means that the value or attractiveness of an outcome depends both on individual beliefs about its ability to serve as a tool to achieve other results, and the value or attractiveness of these results for the individual.

The second equation refers to the force exerted on a person to act. The power of an individual to take an action depends on the strength of individual expectation that the action will lead to a result and the value of this result (which is estimated in the first equation) for the individual.

The power of an individual to take an action depends on the strength of the individual expectation that the action will lead to a result and the value of this result (which is estimated in the first equation) for the individual.

Normally, the first equation is used to analyze or predict the preference for a job, while the second is used to analyze or predict the choice of a job and work effort.It seems that the preference and choice of a job could be useful for the analysis of tourist motivation. The theory has been applied empirically and Mitchell and Beach (1977) have examined some relevant theories.

Witt and Wright (1994) have examined the applications of this theory for the analysis of the preference and choice of holidays and have reached the following conclusions:

Holidays Preference: according to the first equation, the attractiveness or the total value of specific holidays determined by the attractiveness or value of different characteristics to provide positive pull avoiding negative. The relative preference of an individual for the different types of tourist trips or destinations would represent the total value. According to the authors, Vroom’s first equation could be used to analyze not only the destinations that people choose to visit, but also the motivation to travel.

Holidays choice: Mitchell and Beach (1977) note that, while it can be expected that the preference of work and job selection are interrelated, the job ultimately selected may vary from the preferred one for various reasons such as family pressure, economic conditions or the skills of the individual . Similarly, a person may not be able to make the tourist trip s/he prefers for various reasons (family, high cost, inadequate time period, etc.). Vroom’s second equation could therefore, assess the tourist trip actually chosen. Finally, they suggest that the family environment should be taken into account, among other factors. Safety and security may be among the reasons that the tourist may not prefer a specific holiday destination in particular when his/her family is involved in the journey i.e. the family travels together.

Under this framework, the attractiveness of the holidays’ characteristics would be determined partly by the needs of the individual, allowing them to incorporate into the model of the theories of needs (Maslow and Murray). The authors express the assumption that the attractiveness of the holiday characteristics, the ability and expectation of choice are influenced by a wide range of information sources, such as brochures, travel guides, experiences of the individual for the same type of holidays as well as the experiences of others. At this point, regarding safety and security, it should be interesting to assess the influence of presenting news regarding political instability etc. by the media and the extent they influence holiday selection.

1.8 Valuation of the approach for the analysis of tourist motives

The implementation of the expectation theory in the analysis of tourism motivation has many advantages. On a theoretical level, it contributes to the integration of existing concepts related to tourist motivation in a unified theoretical framework. It contributes to the interconnection of the emotional aspect of tourism motivation - needs that cause the desire to travel- with the aspect of perception-decision on a tourist trip and a place. Similarly, it could be incorporated any reason of the tourist trip, assuming that is a factor that affects attractiveness.

Additionally, this approach could provide a means to overcome the problem of the distinction among push and pull factors in the tourism motivation. Both groups of factors are included in the unified theoretical framework.

It provides a framework for analysis of tourism incentives instead of suggesting the reasons for the journey. It leads to the assumption that there is a plethora of incentives for travelling and that such incentives may vary considerably from one individual to another.

The theory could provide a factual basis for research on the issue of tourist motivation. It might be useful for analyzing the factors that determine the preferences of tourists in relation to specific destinations. One could define a set of holiday characteristics on these destinations and to identify the key factors in holiday’s selection.

However, the theory is very complex. This complexity significantly reduces its ability to accurately predict individual behaviour. This weakness constitutes its significant disadvantage as a scientific theory and practical tool. It makes difficult if not impossible to predict the individual behavior of the tourist. For this purpose, it is necessary to define precisely all the features of holidays that affect the attractiveness of specific holidays for one person and then to assess the relative attractiveness of these characteristics, individual beliefs about the potential to serve as a reference tool to these features, and in relation to every holiday destination that a person would like to visit, as well as the expectation of the individual to be able to visit every destination. It seems that this work is very difficult, if not impossible. In conclusion, it could be pointed out that the common denominator of the research analyzing the incentives examined "... remains the sociological and socio-psychological analysis of the causes that shape the context of travel. The analysis of incentives has also played a vital role in creating a broader interpretive framework in the sociology of tourism, which were based in the particular social role played that the tourist has on the trip ... « (Smith, 1989).

1.9 Holidays decision making

A key issue of the test field is the analysis of psychological situations which a person experiences both in the decision making process of travelling as well as during the trip. This section examines the factors that influence the decision making process for holidays by tourists.

A decision model seeks to represent a variety of factors or variables that affect the decision by the consumer and can be considered as “... a detailed diagram showing the main components of a larger system “ (Hsieh et al., 1992: 210). Essentially, a model seeks to emulate or approach in a realistic way, to the extent possible, the complicated formation processes of consumer preference and choice, as well as his/her consumer behavior. The dominant current scientific trend in consumer research is the faculty of perception (cognitive school or paradigm), which assumes that consumers have the ability to receive and process a wide variety of information, particularly during the phase preceding the purchase (Jafari, 1987).

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