Extrait
Content:
1. Introduction
2. Methodological framework and definitions
2.1. The ‘Black Swan’ - a concept and its application
2.2. How to measure ‘Black Swan’ impact - energy prices as an indicator
2.3. A critique of Energy outlooks - predictions in the light of ‘Black Swans’
3. Analysis - The ‘Black Swan’ in the history of oil and electricity
3.1. Oil - a global commodity in turbulent times
3.1.1. 1945-1970 - A phase of stability
3.1.2. The oil shock and how it changed the world
3.1.3. The Iran Crisis
3.1.4. The 1986 oil price collapse
3.1.5. The late 80s, the demise of Communism and the first Gulf Crisis
3.1.6. 9/11 and its aftermath
3.2. Electricity - a versatile necessity in times of crisis
3.2.1. The role of electricity prices
3.2.2. The California Energy Crisis
3.2.3. The 2008 Central Asia Energy crisis
3.2.4. The 2011 Tsunami
4. Is protection possible? Discussion and outline of risk mitigation measures
5. Summary and Conclusion
6. Bibliography
- Citation du texte
- Magister Artium Ullrich Müller (Auteur), 2012, Oil, electricity and Taleb’s ‚Black Swan‘, Munich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/204104
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